Monday February 15, 2010 - 20:28:20 GMT
Share This Story
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report
Morning Report Tuesday 16 February 2010
News and views
It was a quiet European session overnight, the US and much of East Asia on holiday. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Eurozone meeting on Greece, with announcements possible during the Sydney morning. In low-volume trading, S&P500 futures ranged sideways near Friday's closing level. The Eurostoxx 50 closed up 0.4%, and the Nikkei 225 had earlier closed down 0.8%. Commodities were quiet, oil +0.3%, gold +0.3%, although copper's +0.7% may have been fuelled by Japan's 4.6% annualised Q4 GDP release. In credit news, Standard & Poor's lowered the sovereign credit rating of Botswana from A to A-, citing weakened public finances.
The US dollar (index) ranged sideways between 80.20 and 80.50. The EUR similarly showed no direction, ranging between 1.3580 and 1.3630. Of note, short speculative positions in EUR/USD are at record levels, with sovereign credit concerns one factor, providing a headwind to further EUR falls in the near term. USD/JPY slipped from 90.20 to 89.90.
AUD firmed after Sydney closed, from 0.8850 to 0.8910, and then consolidated just under 0.8900.
NZD also firmed slightly, from 0.6955 to 0.6990. AUD/NZD held recent gains, sitting between 1.2730 and 1.2760.
No US data - Presidents' Day holiday.
Japanese Q4 rose 4.6%saar, well above expectations. By major component, PCE was up 0.7% in the quarter, non-residential investment rose 1.0%, private inventories added 0.1ppts, public demand rose 0.4% and net exports added 0.5ppts. None of that was terribly surprising, but the combination of sharp compositional revisions to the previous quarter, as well history going further back, altered the starting point for Q4 significantly and produced the somewhat alarming headline result.
UK house prices up 3.2% in February, for a 6.1% yr annual pace of gain. The Rightmove index is compiled by a real estate agent group based on asking prices; even so it is not out of line with the major lender indices which capture achieved prices and are also showing prices on the rise again.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: Little has changed since yesterday morning's report. For AUD, the 0.8800 support area remains supportive, although 0.8900 is sticky above. NZD has immediate support at 0.6900, while the 0.7000 area remains tough to break. The RBA February meeting minutes are released today, and will be of interest given the surprising pause decision.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. Â© 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."