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Tuesday February 16, 2010 - 10:15:55 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/02/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis February 16,
Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. They are a detailed record of the
committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes
provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so
currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate
The Euro did not
break the resistance nor the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report, and traded
in a tight range for the past 24 hours. The resistance that is considered the
upper limit for the downtrend is 1.3720, and as long as the price is below this
level, we favor more downside activity, But the technical outlook changes
dramatically the minute this level is broken. The continuation of the downtrend
is expected, as we are still trading below the falling trend line drawn from
1.3838. Short term support is are 1.3616 and breaking it would indicate that we
have lived a short correction after Fridayâ€™s fall, and we are to continue
falling today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the
resistance 1.3720, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater,
and the ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 &
1.3836. In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be
important not just for the short term, but for the medium term as
â€¢ 1.3616: the rising trend line from 1.3530 on
â€¢ 1.3525: May 14th low.
â€¢ 1.3422: May 18th
â€¢ 1.3720: the falling trend line from 1.3838
on intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from
â€¢ 1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from
Yesterday, Dollar-Yen did
not break the support or resistance specified in the report, but it did break
89.83 during the Asian session. This break holds a lot of importance for the
short term, since it is a break for the hourly trend line rising from the
important bottom 88.53. Thus we will await a break of the Asian session low
89.70 to confirm the break of this trend line, and breaking it would enhance
chances of a drop in the coming hours, targeting 89.12, and then the all
important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance stays
at 90.22, and the negative technical outlook will not change unless we
decisively break this resistance. If this break happens, we would target the
important Fibonacci levels 91.14, and then what could be the most important
resistance for short term 91.76.
â€¢ 89.70: the rising
trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts.
â€¢ 89.12: Jan 27th low.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to
â€¢ 90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
91.26 to 88.53.
â€¢ 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
on currency trading see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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