European Market Update: German Zew survey likely reflected concerns over Greece's fiscal situation; BOE views rise in inflation as temporary
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
European Market Update: German Zew survey likely reflected concerns over Greece's fiscal situation; BOE views rise in inflation as temporary
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (EU) Euro-Zone 25 Jan New Car Registrations: 12.9% v 16.4% prior - (TU) Turkey Jan Consumer Confidence: 79.2 v 79.0e - (SW) Sweden Q4 Industry Capacity: 79.5% v 78.2% prior; Total Number of Employees Y/Y: -2.3% v -2.8% prior - (UK) Jan CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e - (UK) Jan RPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.8%e; RPI Ex Mortgages Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.6%e; Retail Price Index: 217.9 v 218.0e - (UK) Dec DCLG House Prices Y/Y: 2.9% v 1.2%e - (GE) Germany Feb ZEW Economic Sentiment: 45.1 v 41.0e; Current Situation: -54.8 v -53.0e - (EU) Euro-Zone Feb ZEW Economic Sentiment: 40.2 v 41.5e - (UK) BOE Inflation letter: Underlying inflation pressures 'to the downside'; Recent spike in inflation seen as a temporary deviation. - (IS) Israel Feb Inflation Forecast: 2.2% v 2.5% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets in Europe opened on a bullish footing based on solid results out of UK banking group Barclays [BARC.UK]. Barclays, being the first tier 1 UK financial firm to report FY09 earnings set a high expectation hurdle. FY09 net at Barclays beat estimates and the group maintained its view that provision levels are expected to come down in 2010. Despite the high concentration level of earnings in its ibank unit, analysts and traders were pleased, shares traded as high at +9.5%. This sentiment broke a mixed view that came out of Asian session that still lacks direction in the absence of Chinese bourses. Continental and UK banks all traded higher on the Barclays driven sentiment. January new car registration in the Eurozone shook off some concerns on auto sales levels with solid figures. Auto groups Renault [RNO.FR], Peugeot [UG.FR] and Fiat [F.IT] were lifted by this data. Shares of MAN Ag [MAN.GE], following yesterday's earnings received a number of positive broker notes, leading to outperformance. Not all earnings and corporate flows were positive, disappointing numbers from L'Oreal [OR.FR] and Intercontinental Hotels [IHG.UK] led to selling pressure. Trading volumes have been mixed, continental bourses are below moving averages following the US holiday on Monday, while the FTSE is outperforming on turnover in the financials.
- Individual equities: Barclays [BARC.UK]: Reports FY09 Net Â£9.4B v Â£8.36Be, Rev Â£30.99B v Â£31Be. || Intercontinental hotels [IHG.UK]: Reports FY Op profit,$363M v $354Me, Rev $1.54B v $1.5Be. || L'Oreal [OR.FR]: Reports FY09 Net â‚¬2B v â‚¬1.9Be, Rev â‚¬17.5B v â‚¬17.7Be. || Mobile conf in Madrid
- Speakers: ***EU's Juncker stated that Greece might need more measures if risks materialize but saw no need for help from the IMF. He added that the Euro-Zone had the resources to help Greece and did not see the need to enlarge the Greek plan to other countries. *** ECB: Loan availability for small, medium firms (SMEs) decreased in H2 of 2009 . ECB noted that SMEs access to credit worsened in H2 of 2009; saw tighter loan access in H1 2010 (77% of firms received loans in H2 v 79% in H1) ***German Zew Economists commented that they expected a slower recovery in Germany over the next half-year economic activity to move sideways with slight positive and negative variations. They noted that the survey did not show concerns for double-dip recession and the MoM decline in Economic Sentiment might reflect concerns over Greece's fiscal situation ***Germany ZEW's Franz stated that employment concerns and Euro deficit worries had not lessened and that the retail and auto sector prospects seemed poor. He also noted that the drop in economic sentiment might reflect Greece's fiscal concerns *** BOE Inflation letter noted that the underlying inflation pressures remained 'to the downside'; and that the recent spike in inflation was viewed as a temporary deviation. The letter noted that the BOE's MPC would do whatever it takes to bring inflation back to target. The BOE would even tighten interest rates if necessary if medium term inflation over 2.0%. Inflation likely to slow below 2.0% target in H2 2010as the UK economy had 'substantial margin of slack'. Chancellor Darling replied to letter: and reiterated that the pick up in inflation was seen as temporary and expressed support to the BOE determination in curbing inflationary pressures***
- Currencies: The dollar was softer in what traders deemed a 'relief rally' ahead of the EcoFin meeting in Brussels this session. The mid-March assessment of Greece likely to be the key event at this time. The EUR/USD tested its 200-hour moving at 1.3690 area, which corresponded to its hourly downtrend line from mid-January. Although European peripherals spreads widened to one-week highs, the currency price action seemed to ignore that development.
- Fixed Income: Ireland sold â‚¬1.5B in 4 and 10y government bonds with healthy cover ratios and right at the top of expectations in terms of size. Flows out of the periphery and into the core have German cash yields to trade virtually unchanged across the curve today despite strong equities. The dithering of European officials is testing the patience of many - the Greek 10y has added over 35bps to trade at Bunds+330bps for fresh two week high.. Gilts have been subject to some buying in the belly and long end after inflation was well above target but in line with expectations while USt's are a touch weaker, cash 10s are up 1bps and back above 3.70%.
- Geopolitical: Senator Evan Bayh (D) Indiana announced his intention to not run for reelection in November, stating that levels of partisanship in Washington continued to block problem solving. The action put further weight on both Senate and House Democrats that have seen a wave of negative opinion that culminated in a special election in MA brining Scott Brown (R) to the senate. Pundits have likened the upcoming 2010 elections to the 1994 interim elections.***Eurostar rail service continues to be suspended following a commuter train crash in Brussels, Belgium. The crash killed 18, injuring 150. All traffic in and out Brussels has been suspended. Eurostar is still running on its Paris-London route. ***US/British/Afghan forces have continued a 4 day surge in military operations. Closing the noose on Taliban stronghold of Marjah (pop 75K), fears of continued civilian deaths have risen following 12 deaths in a rocket attack on Saturday. US forces have encountered stiffening resistance in the region, with Murajah seen as a key recruiting and strategic hub for local Taliban forces. Operations are being compared to the 2004 Phantom Fury takedown of the Iraqi city of Fallujah, which had become home to insurgent operations. ***Iranian Foreign Min Manouchehr Mottaki responded to commentary from US Sec of State Clinton, stating that the US was moving towards military dictatorship and remained wrongheaded in regards to the Middle East. The response came as Clinton continued her trip in the region, moving to Saudi Arabia. Clinton had mentioned that the ever rising role of the Revolutionary Guards in Iranian politics and security operations.
***Notes: - Barclays results beat forecasts - Australia's Central Ban (RBA): Growth more closely tied to Asia. Further rate hikes likely but perhaps not at every meeting. - EU's Juncker: Greece has 30 days to show that the 2010 deficit to GDP ratio would be cut by 4% to 8.7% - Dealers noting that USD fixed-income maturities and coupons today
***Looking Ahead: - 8:00 (PD) Poland Jan Avg Gross Wages M/M: -10.0%e v 7.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 6.5% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Jan Employment M/M: 0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.1%e v -1.8% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales M/M: 1.8 v 0.1% prior - 9:00 (US) Feb Empire Manufacturing: 18.00e v 15.92 prior - 9:00 (US) Dec Net Long-term TIC: $35.4Be v $126.8B prior; Total Net TIC: $50.0B v $26.6B prior -12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank interest rate decision: No change expected in the Base Rate from the current 6.50% level -12:00 Fed's Hoenig speaks about US budget - 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 3-year bonds - 12:30 Fed's Lockhart - 12:45 Fed's Kocherlakota speaks about economic outlook - 13:00 (US) Feb NAHB Housing Market Index: 16e v 15 prior - 14:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Trade Balance: No est v $181.4M prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.