Tuesday February 16, 2010 - 12:12:48 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 16-Feb-2010 - 1210 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0738/41...Support in 1.0700-1.0680 region
R: 1.0800-30 / 1.0880 / 1.0940
S: 1.0700-1.0680 / 1.0630-00 / 1.0550
After continuing to trade below 1.08 and recording a low of 1.0717 during the day, Swiss has bounced back slightly and is now trading just below 1.0750. Though it is continuing to trade below 1.08 over the last couple of days, much strength is not seen on its downmove. As mentioned earlier, Support is seen in 1.0700-1.0680 region which we expect to hold in the US session and we might expect a bounce back once again towards 1.0800-30 in the coming sessions. This 1.0800-30 is a very significant Resistance region seen on the upside, a break above which might take it further up towards 1.0900-50.
GBP-USD @ 1.5700/05...Support at 55-MA on 4H.
R: 1.5756-62 / 1.5801
S: 1.5660 / 1.5582
The Cable tested the Resistance at 1.5734 that we sighted in the morning. Contrary to our belief, the pair has honoured the Resistance and is now trading near the Support at 55-MA on the 4H chart. If it continues to hold, the pair may reattempt a rise towards 1.58 which is the upper end of the range in which the pair has been oscillating over the last few days. However, a break of this Support may lead to a slide towards the Projected Max Low for the day which is at 1.5582.
Overall, till the pair trades above 1.55 Support, there are greater chances of the pair moving gradually higher over the next few days. A break may lead to a sharp slide. Till this Support holds, we would expect it to hold.
AUD-USD @ 0.8945/48...Trading in the Resistance region 0.8930-55
R: 0.8930-55 / 0.9000-30 / 0.9060
S: 0.8900 / 0.8800-0.8780 / 0.8735
After breaking above the Resistance region 0.8930-55 and recording a high of 0.8965, Aussie has once again fallen back and is once again trading in the Resistance region (0.8930-55). If this Resistance region continue to hold, a break below 0.8900 might see a downmove towards 0.8850-00. On the other hand a strong break above 0.8955 might see a rise towards 0.9000 in the coming sessions. The 21-Week-MA is the significant Support-turned-Resistance level to be watched for on the upside.
AUD 10K Short at 0.8930, SL 0.9020, TP Open.
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