Tuesday February 16, 2010 - 20:19:53 GMT
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Daily Technical Update AUD/USD Eyes 0.92
- 4H: Last week, the market showed that it wanted to keep the
AUD/USD in consolidation and rejected any further breakout from the downsloping
channel. (Refer to Daily Technical Update 2.12.2010 AUD/USD.)
- The 4H time-frame shows the upsloping trendline holding and intact. The
market is in fact accelerating the rally. The stochastic shows momentum clearly
broken above to the bullish side and staying above 65 area, reflecting an
aggressive run up in the short-term.
- Daily: The daily chart shows the 0.917/0.920 area (78.6%
retracement) is coincident with a downsloping trendline. This is a possible
target for the current upswing. However, further rally beyond is also possible.
This break continues the established uptrend, but I suspect it would be a
terminal wave of the bullish cycle that began October 2008.
- Weekly: The weekly shows a possible Elliott Wave count. The
stochastic suggests an almost completed bullish cycle. The fibonacci expansion
shows target for wave V if it comes out to be 38.2% of III at 0.9760. This is
near the previous high. The parity level is a psychological level an a break
means a possible wave V to 1.05 if it is 61.8% of III.
- This final wave should not bring th stochastic to overbought levels.
This would be a harbinger to a major correction. after testing the 1.00 area.
But until then, we will stalk the current rally as a part of the consolidation,
leaning on anticipation of a breakout to above the short-term target of
Commodity Trading Advisor
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational
purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information
contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does
not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for
any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or
consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying
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