Renewed Confidence in Greece Deal Triggers Big Gain in Euro
The Euro soared on Tuesday as news that Greece is ahead of its
deficit-reduction targets boosted investor confidence. Traders celebrated the
news that Greece
may not require any bailout from the European Union by driving the EUR USD
higher while posting its biggest gain in seven months.
Short-covering was most likely the driving force behind
Tuesdayâ€™s rally which means a retracement is likely at some time this week. If
this market is truly ready to change the trend to up, then fresh buying has to
come in on the next test of the recent bottom. Bullish traders will try to set
up a secondary higher bottom.
The GBP USD finished the day higher.A report released overnight showed that
inflation accelerated in January to its fastest pace in 14 months. This news helped
trigger a short-covering rally. Inflation was up 3.5% which exceeded the Bank
of Englandâ€™s target of 2.0%. This prompted a response by BoE Governor Mervyn
King to explain the rise. Traders are becoming less confident in the BoEâ€™s
ability to help the economy while at the same time preventing a surge in
inflation. Demand for higher risk assets helped the Pound overcome the economic
issues it is facing.
The USD JPY finished slightly better on light trading. The
week-long Chinese holiday may be playing games with the volume. Early during
the trading session, the Dollar was trading lower against the Yen as Japanese
investors repatriated gains from U.S. Treasury investments. Later, demand for
higher risk assets and the stronger U.S. economy helped to drive
investors out of the safety of the Japanese Yen into the U.S. Dollar.
The strengthening Euro diminished the possibility of another
intervention by the Swiss National Bank. This helped to trigger a profit-taking
break in the USD CHF. Traders should watch for a huge correction in this market
should the Euro continue to post strong gains.
Sharply higher gold and crude oil boosted the Canadian
Dollar on Tuesday. The main trend in the USD CAD is down on the daily chart. Todayâ€™s
downside momentum has been strong enough to push this market through a key
retracement zone at 1.0501 to 1.0436.Despite the sharp sell-off, most investors expect this market to remain
inside the 1.0224 to 1.0780 range over the near-term.
Greater demand for risky assets is helped to boost the AUD
USD. Tuesdayâ€™s strong rally exceeded a key 50% price at .8953. The next target
is now .9042. Traders also reacted positively to the news from the Reserve Bank
minutes. This report showed that the RBA vote to keep interest rates unchanged
in February was closer than originally thought. This opens up the door to
future rate hikes.
Renewed demand for higher risk assets helped drive up the
NZD USD. Thin market conditions because of the Chinese holiday helped this
market surge to the upside. The chart indicates that .7124 is the next upside
target. Technically oversold conditions also helped to drive out weaker shorts.
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