Wednesday February 17, 2010 - 20:19:12 GMT
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Daily Technical Update USD/JPY Clues for New Bulls
Daily Technical Update
February 17, 2010
USD/JPY Clues for New Bulls
- Daily: The USD/JPY has been very choppy. You can
retracements from the current intermediate downtrend have been strong,
but have picked up the current short-term bullish action to be
indicative of a larger scale bullish mode. (Refer to Daily Video Technical Update 2.12.2010-second pair; and Weekly Technical Update 2.12.2010).
- What are some clues that the current rally is it â€“ that this is the
rally to begin a new bullish mode? We donâ€™t even have a lower higher
bottom yet, though this would be a great confirmation.
- Other clues can be seen in both the strength of the bullish price
action. Another is that it was rejected at 88.50 which is a 78.6%
retracement (not shown here).
- The stochastic is also an important clue. Here I use a 25-period
slow stochastic to capture the intermediate trend during
longer-intermediate term ranging action (market has been in
consolidation mode since Sept 2009). In the intermediate term, the
market is still in consolidation, unless the stochastic dips after it
goes overbought, but fails to reach below letâ€™s say 50. That would be a
bullish confirmation. For now, we have bullish signal in the
- 4H: The 4H time-frame also gives us confirmation for the short/intermediate-term bullish outlook.
- Here the stochastic period is 25, and we can see a very strong clue
here. You can see that the stochastic has fluctuated widely between Jan
19 â€“ Feb 4. This is indicative of ranging action. However, note that
during the Feb 5th decline, the stochastic stayed above.
- This is the new bullâ€™s clue indicative of a new bullish cycle in the short/intermediate-term.
- Daily: Looking back at the daily, we see some
short-term targets within the consolidation mode. 92/92.50 is an
important resistance area. If that is broken, the market still has to
break the 94/94.50 area to signal a long-term bullish outlook outside
of the current consolidation context.
- This would be a completion of a head and shoulders.
Commodity Trading Advisor
Information and opinions contained in this report are for
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believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or
completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or
damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of
or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.
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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.
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