Thursday February 18, 2010 - 12:11:41 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 18-Feb-2010 - 1210 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0796/99...The 100-Week-MA Resistance holding
R: 1.0829 / 1.0883 / 1.0925-40
S: 1.0780 / 1.0720-00 / 1.0630
The 100-Week-MA Resistance at 1.0829 held during the day and Swiss is trading in a narrow range of 1.0780-1.0826. However, failure to see a strong downmove below 1.08 is keeping up the chances of a break above this 100-Week-MA which might see further rise towards 1.0880-1.09 in the coming sessions. As mentioned earlier the significant levels to watch for on the upside above the 100-Week-MA are 1.0883 (21-Month-MA), 1.0925 (Trenline Resistance on the monthly candles) and 1.0940 [the 50% retracement level of the fall from 1.1965 (12-Mar-09) to 1.0075 (16-Nov-09)].
The pair is not showing much strength on its downmove and we expect the Support in 1.0720-00 region to hold in the US session today if any sharp downmove below 1.08 is seen.
GBP-USD @ 1.5594/99...Max Low at 1.5541
R: 1.5678 / 1.5721 / 1.5833
S: 1.5541 / 1.5500 / 1.5460
The Cable has broken below the Support at 1.5610 that we had mentioned in the morning and has recorded a low of 1.5575 so far. Further downside should be contained near the 1.5500 Support. The pair would then possibly continue to honour the range of 1.55-1.58 over the next few days. On the downside, we shall look below 1.5500 only if it is able to break the Support. At the instance it feels that a strong break below 1.5500 may make the pair very bearish. Hence one may look at buying near 1.55 and trade the range. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.5721 and 1.5541 respectively.
AUD-USD @ 0.8965/68...Support-turned-Resistance at the 21-Week-MA (0.9028) held
R: 0.9028 / 0.9100-20 / 0.9200
S: 0.8900 / 0.8865 / 0.8800-0.8780
Aussie has risen slightly from the day's low of 0.8938. However, it is not showing much strength on it upmove and is continuing to trade below 0.9000. The Support-turned-Resistance at the 21-Week-MA (currently at 0.9028) which held yesterday is the significant level to watch for on the upside. As mentioned earlier, immediate Support is seen at 0.8900 which if holds might keep the pair ranged between 0.8900-0.9050 for the rest of the week. On the other hand a break below 0.8900 might see 0.8800-0.8780 on the downside.
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