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Monday February 22, 2010 - 10:10:01 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 22/02/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis February 22,
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business
European traders look forward to the publication of the
German Ifo Business Climate Index. The German Information and Foschung (Ifo)
Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the
Euro-zone. The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A
higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
EUR. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of
The Euro broke
Fridayâ€™s resistance 1.3507 and successfully reached the first suggested target
1.3572, before hitting the second target 1.3653 after the open with astonishing
accuracy (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3652). That is
why we will consider this top to be resistance of the day. If the price continue
to show strength, and broke this resistance, the current rise will go on for the
short term at least. We see todayâ€™s most important target for such a break will
be the test of the falling trend line from 1.3838, which is currently at 1.3737.
And if broken the next target will be 1.3810. But if 1.3653 holds, and succeeds
in reversing short term correction, then the price will fall to support 1.3618,
and if broken the targets will be 1.3544 (which may be an ideal target for such
a drop, and then 1.3491.
â€˘ 1.3618: the confirmation
level for the â€śEngulfing patternâ€ť on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.3544: short term
50% Fibonacci level.
â€˘ 1.3284: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on
â€˘ 1.3653: Important intraday
â€˘ 1.3737: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on the hourly chart.
1.3810: important intraday
Dollar-Yen was not able to
break the support 91.51 or the resistance 92.31 on Friday. But in spite of a
relatively limited trading range, it has left us a very important signal on the
charts, which is a clear â€śReversal Dayâ€ť pattern. This pattern is one of the
strongest reversal formations, and most successful ones. Thus, we will
immediately take the Yen side. We expect this pair to start falling once we
break the short term support 91.55, which we trade pips above right now. IF the
support at 91.55 is broken, we will witness a strong drop targeting 90.40 as a
first target, and maybe we will also see 89.90. But if the price holds above
this support, we could see a price behaviour negating this outlook, and we could
see a test of the resistance 92.31. If this resistance is broken, the strength
signs from last week will continue to achieve gains, with the next set of
targets at 93.08 & the important 93.75.
important intraday bottom.
â€˘ 90.40: the bottom of the rising channel on the
â€˘ 89.90: Feb 15th low.
Oct 27th high.
â€˘ 93.08: Jul 22nd low.
â€˘ 93.75: Jan 8th
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
information on US dollar index see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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