Monday February 22, 2010 - 12:11:15 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 22-Feb-2010 - 1209 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0768/71...Support at 1.0700
R: 1.0836 / 1.0881 / 1.0940
S: 1.0700 / 1.0650-30 / 1.0600
Swiss has risen slightly from the day's low of 1.0736. The pair is not showing much strength on its downmove and if the immediate Support at 1.07 continue to hold, we might see a rise once again towards 1.0850-1.0880 in the coming sessions. As mentioned earlier the sigificant levels to watch for on the upside are 1.0836 (100-Week-MA), 1.0881 (21-Month-MA) which might be tested once again in the coming sessions. Remember 1.0940 is the 50% retracement level of the fall from 1.1965 (12-Mar-09) to 1.0075 (16-Nov-09) which is at 1.0940.
Any sharp downmove is not looking likely now and we might expect the Support at 1.07 to hold in the US session today. However, a break below 1.07 might see 1.0650-30 on the downside.
GBP-USD @ 1.5474/78...Range 1.5400-1.5550
R: 1.5507 / 1.5557-76 / 1.5603
S: 1.5429-5400 / 1.5359
The Cable was extremely ranged through the day between 1.5450-1.5500. The Support of the 55-MA on 1H at 1.5507 has held and if continues to hold during the US session as well, the pair may come down towards the range Support at 1.5400 mentioned in the morning. The view is of sideways moves over the next few days above 1.54 which may lead to a rally towards 1.5550-1.5600 over the next few days. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.5576 and 1.5359 respectively.
But overall the bearish sentiments are alive in Cable having broken below the Support at 1.55 last week which may lead to a sharp fall towards 1.50 over the next few weeks.
AUD-USD @ 0.8991/95...Might test the Support in 0.8900-0.8880 region
R: 0.9000-20 / 0.9046 / 0.9071
S: 0.8950 / 0.8900-0.8880 / 0.8730
Aussie is continuing to trade below the 21-Week-MA (currently at 0.9046) which is a very significant Support-turned-Resistance level to watch for on the upside. Failure to see a strong upmove above 0.90 is keeping the pair pressured on the downside. We might expect a downmove towards the Support in 0.8900-0.8880 region in the US session today. Note the projected Max-Low for the day is 0.8919. On the upside a strong break above the 21-Week-MA might increase the chances of further rise towards 0.9100-0.9200
overall we expect the pair to be ranged between 0.8900-0.9050 for some time.
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