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Monday February 22, 2010 - 15:20:15 GMT
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Keeping it simple! Euro versus the US dollar…

Key News
Lost amid government reports that China reduced its holdings of Treasuries by a record amount in December were data showing Japan increased its stake, a move that may signal U.S. yields are peaking. (Bloomberg)

If all we talk about is money, nothing will be funny, honey
And now that everyone's a critic, it's makin' my mascara runny
If we only talk about the heavens, makin' it together is crazy
If we don't get a new situation for our destination we're lazy

But it's gonna be, it's gonna be
Please make it be, it's gonna be

Now if a princess becomes human, stoner on the talk show you're ruined
Cause there's a fine line between a skewer and a decent sense of humor…
               It’s Gonna Be, Norah Jones

FX Trading – Keeping it simple! Euro versus the US dollar…
Winston Churchill once said: “Nowhere is more nonsense talked than by currency experts about foreign exchange.” We are in total agreement, and unfortunately guilty as charged, even though we do our best to spew a minimum of nonsense.

We believe, once all the non-sense is said and done, there really are only two key things to worry about (assuming of course you have a natural market cycle time-frame; we are not talking about short-term technical stuff that seems so popular); these two things encapsulate all the other stuff:

1. Interest rates
2. Economic growth

To add some nuance to these two variables:

A. It is a relative game—an aspect that seems to allude the “dollar is going to zero” crowd who focus only on US woes (which we don’t for a minute underestimate).
B. There are exceptions to the interest rate and economic growth rules that can last for years; especially when the ebb and flow of risk based on pure liquidity is the driver of asset prices. (Think Japanese yen here.)

That “B” part about “There are exceptions” is analogous to an economist saying “on the other hand.” Agreed! But let’s look past the exceptions at the moment and focus on the key major pair relationship: Euro – US Dollar

1. Interest Rates – The momentum now has to shift in favor of the Fed versus the European Central Bank (ECB); that’s no surprise given the troubles facing the core Eurozone countries. The upshot: The existing front-end yield differential favoring the Euozone should disappear and go negative, already US is higher on the longer end of the curve: [Chart not available in text forma

2. Growth – Already the numbers are showing the “relative” US growth is smoking the Eurozone countries; we expect that will continue. Keep in mind, economic growth and interest rates are tightly interwoven, any surprise growth in the US means expectations will shift even more in favor of the Fed being much more aggressive than the ECB.
[Chart not available in text format.]

Does this mean the euro will fall against the dollar today? No. But it does mean that over time, it sure looks as though the US dollar is poised, based on the key fundamental drivers we can define in the currency market, to rally against the euro over time.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC

David Newman here…
Today in Currency Currents Jack talked about the key fundamental drivers that move currency prices over time. This is the type of thing we do each month, in much more detail, in our Currency Investor newsletter.

Last month we explained why the risks are growing in China because of the credit bubble formed thanks to capital controls, a fixed currency, and hot money flow. In addition, Jack and JR defined why they believe currency prices move in a boom-bust pattern, while summarizing the key points from George Soros excellent book, The Alchemy of Finance.

Our monthly Currency Investor newsletter is geared to a conservative approach to the foreign exchange market. Our recommendations consist of ETFs, so don’t get turned off by buzz words like “exchange rates” or “foreign exchange” – this investing strategy is as easy to implement as buying and selling stocks.

At $39 per year it’s a deal you’d be hard-pressed to find anywhere else.

Plus: Get our 2010 Forecast Issue … 20+ pages of analysis and charts covering the major and emerging market currency world—key themes and targets.

Please contact me if you have any questions about our Currency Investor service.

Thank you.

David Newman
Director of Marketing & Sales
Black Swan Capital
[email protected] 


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