User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday March 4, 2005 - 11:26:49 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Maybe all is not in the dollar price

Quotable

“To be sure, imbalances can arise, and they may even act as tipping points. However, there's a strong internal corrective mechanism in free-market economies. Prices serve as signals, telling businesses to produce more and consumers to buy less. The real problems arise when government, always under the guise of making things better, interferes and exacerbates the problem. In so doing, the economy doesn't get a chance to correct - - and learn -- from its own mistakes.”

Caroline Baum, Bloomberg

FX Trading

Below an excerpt from, “EUR/USD Downside Risks from Record High Employment ISM Index”, an this excellent research piece, dated 3 Mar ’05, by Monica Fan, Global Head of FX Strategy at the Royal Bank of Canada:

“The non-manufacturing ISM Employment Jobs Index surged to 59.6 in February, to its highest level since the series inception in 1997. This points to significant upside risks to Bloomberg consensus forecasts for 225K (RBC: 240K) growth in non-farm payrolls tomorrow, after the lacklustre 146K increase in January. Non-farm payrolls could biased significantly to the upside and non-farm payrolls could print above the current range of forecasts of 150K to 303K.”

The RBC strategy piece was forwarded to me by a well-connected trader friend. So I am sure many traders are well aware of the potential for non-farm payrolls. This makes the following email I received from one of Black Swan’s extremely perceptive clients so apt:

“Buy the rumour, sell the fact could be playing out right now...market is set up for disappointment if payrolls don't live up to 300K plus...I have cut back on some dollar longs (taken profit), tightened up stops (stop profits) on the rest, and expect after tomorrow we will see opportunity to re-establish some new dollar longs.”

He is right. But the practical problem we have with placing stops in any seemingly logical fashion around the non-farm payroll number is that prices move so quickly in one direction, then often reverse and reverse again. A cynic would say: “First the dealers take out the stops on their books; then they move the market in the ‘right’ direction.” (Note: But because I am rarely cynical about the forex trading community, I won’t say that—a least until it appears to happen to me another 10 or 15 times.)

So, other than those now looking up and down at the order books, we are all in the same boat together as the non-farm payroll number approaches. It is a guessing game. Lay down your money, and take your chances. But here is what we do know that may provide some reference if the number comes in anywhere near consensus (which would be a real coup for economists’ who seem to miss this number with increasing regularity):

1) The US is hiring. Europe is firing.
2) The Fed is raising rates. Europe is on hold.

Of course, those “knowns” are already in the market price too.

But what is not in the market price, I don’t think has a lot to do with what Steven Vames, writing for The Wall Street Journal this morning, said this about the “carry trade”:

“In the second half of 2004, a falling dollar and comparatively low U.S. interest rates made the dollar an ideal currency to borrow, or fund, the trade…More recently, a long list of factors have been unraveling the attractiveness of such trades. Among them have been the durability of the early-2005 dollar rally, rising U.S. interest rates, a more shaky outlook for the Australian dollar, traction in the Japanese economic recovery and the potential revaluation of the yuan by China.”

I would add to Steven’s list the potential for a devaluing Chinese yuan. (Gulp! Gasp!) I found this interesting factoid in an article titled “Let it Ride” by Kenneth Rogoff, economic columnist for Foreign Policy magazine:

“If the costs of flexible exchange rates are hard to detect‚ the risks of trying to stabilize currencies are all too obvious. China‚ for example‚ has shown that it can stabilize (indeed‚ fix) the yuan-U.S. dollar rate‚ but only through a draconian system of capital controls that severely punishes ordinary citizens seeking to invest their money in something other than the country’s bankrupt banking system. Although some left-leaning economists seem to think heavy-handed financial controls are wonderful‚ the truth is that they just don’t work well for more-developed economies that need sophisticated and competitive financial markets to channel savings toward productive investments. Unfortunately‚ if China were to suspend its capital controls without allowing its exchange rate to float‚ it would almost surely suffer a massive speculative attack à la Mexico in 1994 or Asia in 1997 and 1998.” [emphasis added]

If we couple Mr. Rogoff’s view, with what Morgan Stanley’s Andy Xie has been telling us for a while about the hot money speculation in China being predicated on easy money as far as the eye can see, and add in the remnants of money still playing the carry-trade game, we have the makings of something I don’t believe is “in the price.” And I think it could be something lingering in the background should we get a blowout jobs report today: the possibility the Fed starts taking 50 basis point ladles of punch away from the bowl. It could be a catalyst for a significant flow of money back into the buck that is now unaccounted for.

Is everything in the financial world just “one degree” away from Mr. Alan Greenspan? It sure seems like it.

Tighten down on those helmets and be careful out there.

Jack Crooks

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 16 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105