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Tuesday February 23, 2010 - 03:37:35 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 23-Feb-2010 - 0335 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities closed in the red after a volatile session yesterday. The Dow (10383.38) closed 0.18% lower and the Nasdaq (2242.03) closed 0.08% lower. The markets were in the red for the first time in five days as the commodity shares dragged the index on account of lower natural gas and metal prices, overshadowing gains in banks on speculation that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at a record low. We continue to hold our view of a resistance at 10700-50 on the Dow for the days ahead.

The Asian markets are in the red today. The Nikkei (10280.33) is down 1.16%, the Shanghai (2945.00) is down 1.94% and the HangSeng (20177.83) is down by about 1%. The Nikkei has a resistance near 10600-50, which if tested can drag it down to 9700-50. The Sensex (16237.05) closed up 0.28% yesterday, losing most of its opening gains, throughout the day. The Sensex may rise to 17500 if it continues to close above 16000 in the next few days.


COMMODITIES
Crude (79.83) is continuing to trade higher. The continuing strike in the French refinery and Iran's nuclear program are keeping up the supply concerns which is retaining the price higher. Immeidiate Resistance is seen at 81 a strong break above which might increase the chances of a further rise towards 83-85 over the next few days.

Gold (1112.30), though continuing to trade and close above 1100 over the last several days, it is finding itself very difficult to see a break above the Resistance in 1120-40 region. As mentioned earlier we might see some sideways move in the range of 1100-1150 for some time. If 1100 is broken then we might expect a little broad range of 1080-1150.

Intersting to note from the Crude/Gold ratio graph is that since Jun-09 the Curde/Gold and Gold/Crude line start to diverge whenever they converge towards each other. If that pattern is to continue, then there are good chances of a seeing a rise in Gold prices in the coming days. However, it could be too early to take a call now and so we will have to wait and watch the market for some time. To see the Crude/Gold ratio graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/crude&gold.shtml#ma


CURRENCIES
Currencies have traded sideways yesterday.

The Euro has ranged between 1.3574 and 1.3655 yesterday. May see some upside towards 1.37 today. Dollar-Yen (91.04) has come down a bit as the 200-DMA Resistance (92.21) continued to weigh on the pair. It may come down towards 90.00 over the next few days. The Cable (1.5510) has remained ranged with a bullish bias. It has traded between 1.5430 and 1.5522 yesterday. An upside is likely to be contained near 1.5595.

Dollar-Swiss (1.0749) is likely to come down towards 1.0660 on a breach of immediate Support region 1.0742-06. Aussie (0.8993) continues to face Resistance from the 21-week MA. A break above this may lead to a rise towards 0.9150 over the next few days.

USD-SGD is trading slightly lower at 1.4080 and USD-KRW is trading slightly higher near 1151.40. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 46.21 yesterday.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The yield on 2Y T-notes have come down a bit and was last quoted at 0.88% while the yield on 10Y benchmark notes have risen slightly and was quoted at 3.78%. Note the US 10Y and 5Y yield differential which has been surging over the last few days. The 10Y-2Y yield differnce is at 2.90% points close to the high of 2.94% points set on Feb 18. There are growing fears that the Fed will refrain from increasing rates soon because industry reports suggested that the consumer confidence fell in January. To see the chart of USD Yields Differential, click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usddiff.shtml#sindiff


DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT Jan GER IFO Business Expectations
...Previous 100.6
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

09:00 GMT Jan GER IFO Business Situations
...Previous 91.2
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

09:00 GMT Jan GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 96.3...Previous 95.8
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

14:00 GMT US Case Schiller
...Expected -2.9%...Previous -5.3%

15:00 GMT US Cons Conf
...Expected 55.0...Previous 55

 

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