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Tuesday February 23, 2010 - 10:08:09 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/02/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis February 23, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: New Home Sales

Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the New Home Sales report. It measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole.
The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 350K.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support 1.3618 and traveled more than half the way to the target 1.3544 (yesterday’s low 1.3572). The modest drop came after 1.3653 successfully reversed the short term direction. That is why we will consider this top to be resistance of the day. If the price continue to show strength, and broke this resistance, the current rise will go on for the short term at least. We see today’s most important target for such a break will be the test of the falling trend line from 1.3838, which is currently at 1.3737. And if broken the next target will be 1.3810. But if 1.3653 holds, and succeeds in reversing short term correction, then the price will fall to support 1.3612, and if broken the targets will be 1.3544 (which may be an ideal target for such a drop, and then 1.3491.

Support:
• 1.3612: a rising trend line on the intraday charts.
• 1.3544: short term 50% Fibonacci level.
• 1.3491: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts.

Resistance:
• 1.3653: Important intraday top.
• 1.3737: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on the hourly chart.
• 1.3810: important intraday top.

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USD/JPY

The clear “Reversal Day” pattern proved its strength. As we have expected, the price started to fall immediately after breaking 91.55, reaching 90.84 until now (but without reaching the suggested target 90.40). As we said yesterday, the “Reversal Day” pattern is one of the strongest & most reliable reversal patterns, that is why we will keep our bias towards the Yen, but with caution, because as we get closer & closer to the channel bottom, the odds of a rising correction gets bigger & bigger. Short term most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart which is currently at 90.55. We do not recommend going short before it is broken. If this break takes place, the price will drop targeting 89.90, and then 89.22. Resistance is at Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term 91.37, breaking it would mean that we already have a rising correction (at least). Targets of such a break are 92.31 & 93.08.

Support:
• 90.55: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 89.90: Feb 15th low.
• 89.22: Feb 10th low.

Resistance:
• 91.37: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
• 92.31: Oct 27th high.
• 93.08: Jul 22nd low.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.

For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.

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Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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