Stocks Called Lower; Traders Await Housing, Consumer Confidence
equity markets are expected to open lower as risk sentiment wanes a little
following a drop in the Euro. Investors appear to be taking risk off the table
over concerns about debt issues in Europe and a slow down in the U.S.
economy.Traders will be focusing on the
Case-Shiller Housing and Consumer Confidence Reports for direction. Investors
are also uncertain about the Fedâ€™s next interest rate play now that they have
raised the discount rate. The great debate remains, will they or wonâ€™t they
raise rates in 2010?
Aversion to risk and oversold conditions are helping to give
Treasury futures a boost. While the stronger Dollar and weaker Euro is
pressuring April Gold and April Crude Oil.
The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against all major
currencies except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment has shifted back toward
safety.Investors are buying the Dollar
and the Yen as they scale back their appetite for more risky investments.
traders will focus on the S&P Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence
Reports. Economists are predicting that home prices probably declined at the
slowest pace since May 2007. The Consumer Confidence Report could show a
decline as consumers may be reacting to the current bleak employment outlook.
The lack of jobs growth most likely also contributed to a drop in confidence.
It is believed that the strength of the U.S. economic recovery will depend
on improvements in the labor market. Housing prices are expected to remain down
as long as consumer confidence is down.
The March Euro rallied overnight, but has since backed down
as more concerns have been raised over Greeceâ€™s ability to handle its
ballooning budget deficit. This market has reversed course after retracing into
a resistance zone at 1.3615 to 1.3656. A new two-day main bottom has been
formed at 1.3443. The main top and change in trend point remains 1.3788.
News that German Business Confidence unexpectedly weakened
in February also pressured the Euro along with reports that the outlook for Spain
remains bleak following reports that bad loans are likely to continue to rise
as the labor situation deteriorates. And the hits just keep on coming!
The March British Pound is down sharply this morning. This
weakness is expected to continue into the New York session. The charts are indicating
more downside potential is likely. Combined with the weak fundamentals, the
Pound remains one of the weakest currencies.
The signs are there that the U.K. economy is still at risk for a
protracted recovery. Additional pressure is coming from dovish comments from
the Bank of England during its testimony before Parliament.
Overnight, BoE Governor Mervyn King said that the BoE stands
ready to take appropriate measures to shore up the economy. He also stated that
there still are downside risks to the economy. Finally, he reiterated that
inflation was likely to fall below 2%.Many traders feel that this indicates the BoE is leaning toward
expanding and extending its quantitative easing program.
Treasury adviser Roger Bootle said the U.K. economy is entering a â€śvery
grave stageâ€ť and the Bank of England should expand its bond-buying program.
According to BoE Deputy Governor Charles Bean â€śa weaker currency will boost
Both of these statements pointed toward a lower British
Pound. This bearish scenario is likely to continue throughout the day.
The March Swiss Franc is trading weaker overnight. Talk is
circulating that the Swiss National Bank intervened once again when the Euro
weakened. The SNB is trying to prevent appreciation in the Franc. A higher
priced Swiss France hurts exportersâ€™ sales abroad. This could be crippling to
the economy since exports make up at least half of Switzerlandâ€™s GDP.
The March Japanese Yen is trading better as aversion to risk
is up. Traders are jittery about holding on to higher risk assets and are
seeking shelter in the lower yielding Japanese Yen.
The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar is feeling pressure
because of the drop in gold and crude oil. Both precious metals and energy make
up a large portion of the Canadian GDP so lower prices will adversely affect
the economy. The overall picture indicates the currency is likely to remain
Falling demand for higher risk is pressuring the higher
yielding Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Overnight both currency pairs
rallied, only to run into resistance and selling pressure. Both are also in
positions to post daily closing price reversal tops which could trigger 2 to 3
day corrections of at least 50% of the last major rally.
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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