The U.S. Dollar mounted a strong turnaround on Tuesday
following a weaker overnight trade. A surprise drop in consumer confidence in
and an unexpected fall in German business confidence reversed the Dollar higher
against most major currencies.Both
reports indicate that there are increasing concerns regarding the strength of
the global economic recovery.
The U.S. Dollar traded higher against all major currencies
except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment shifted back toward safety.Investors bought the Dollar and the Yen as
they scaled back their appetite for more risky investments.
Trading may be tight overnight because of Bernankeâ€™s
testimony on Wednesday before the House Committee on Financial Services. He is
expected to address the jobs outlook and the need for additional stimulus.
The EUR USD closed near the low and in a position to test
last weekâ€™s main bottom at 1.3443. A trade through the recent bottom will make
1.3692 a new lower main top. Concerns are being raised over Greeceâ€™s
ability to handle its ballooning budget deficit. In addition, the news that
German Business Confidence unexpectedly weakened in February also pressured the Euro along with reports
that the outlook for Spain
remains bleak following reports that bad loans are likely to continue to rise
as the labor situation deteriorates. Continue to look for more weakness in the
Euro but be aware that China
may be eager to protect their currencies by buying other foreign currencies. This
could trigger a short-covering rally.
The GBP USD finished down but off its low. In addition,
buyers came in an effort to save the currency from testing its recent low at
1.5352. The charts are indicating more downside potential is likely. Combined
with the weak fundamentals, the Pound remains one of the weakest currencies.
The signs are there that the U.K. economy is still at risk for a
protracted recovery. Additional pressure is coming from dovish comments from
the Bank of England during its testimony before Parliament. Short-term oversold
conditions could be preventing an acceleration to the downside however.
The USD CHF mounted a strong rally on Tuesday. Talk circulated
that the Swiss National Bank may have once again intervened as the Euro weakened.
The SNB is mandated to protect its economy and has been intervening heavily
lately during the Euro crisis. At this time, the weaker Euro is putting Swiss
exports at risk.
Jittery investors seeking protection against a decline in
higher risk assets bought the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, putting pressure on the
USD JPY. Short traders should be watching for a technical bounce in the 90.34
to 89.22 retracement zone. Downside momentum should continue once this zone is
penetrated. Regaining 90.34 could trigger a short-covering rally.
The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar was under selling pressure
all day because of the drop in gold and crude oil. This is helped to strengthen
the USD CAD. Both precious metals and energy make up a large portion of the
Canadian GDP so lower prices will adversely affect the economy. Tuesdayâ€™s rally
retraced to 50% of the recent break from 1.0780 to 1.0369.
Falling demand for higher risk pressured the higher yielding
Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Overnight both currency pairs rallied, only
to run into resistance and selling pressure. Both markets posted daily closing
price reversal tops which could trigger 2 to 3 day corrections of at least 50%
of the last major rally.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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