Aversion to risk and oversold conditions helped give
Treasury futures a boost. In addition, weaker than expected U.S. economic data, increased concerns that the U.S. economic
recovery may be faltering. Some of the rally may have been short-covering ahead
of Fed Chairman Bernankeâ€™s testimony on Wednesday.
After a weaker opening, U.S. equity markets plunged to the
downside following a so-so housing report and an unexpected drop in consumer
confidence. Investors had been jittery coming into the reports, but pushed the
sell button heavily once the results were revealed. Investors are also
uncertain about the Fedâ€™s next interest rate play now that they have raised the
discount rate. The great debate remains, will they or wonâ€™t they raise rates in
The stronger Dollar and decreasing demand for higher risk
assets helped pressure April Gold and April Crude Oil.
A surprise drop in consumer confidence in the U.S. and an
unexpected fall in German business confidence sent the Dollar higher against
most major currencies while the Euro weakened. Both reports indicate that there
are concerns about the global economic recovery.
The U.S. Dollar mounted a strong turnaround on Tuesday
following a weaker overnight trade. A surprise drop in consumer confidence in
and an unexpected fall in German business confidence reversed the Dollar higher
against most major currencies.Both
reports indicate that there are increasing concerns regarding the strength of
the global economic recovery.
The U.S. Dollar traded higher against all major currencies
except the Japanese Yen as risk sentiment shifted back toward safety.Investors bought the Dollar and the Yen as
they scaled back their appetite for more risky investments.
Trading may be tight overnight because of Bernankeâ€™s
testimony on Wednesday before the House Committee on Financial Services. He is
expected to address the jobs outlook and the need for additional stimulus.
The March Euro closed near the low and in a position to test
last weekâ€™s main bottom at 1.3442. A trade through the recent bottom will make
1.3692 a new lower main top. Concerns are being raised over Greeceâ€™s ability to handle its
ballooning budget deficit. In addition, the news that German Business Confidence
unexpectedly weakened in February also pressured the Euro along with reports
that the outlook for Spain
remains bleak following reports that bad loans are likely to continue to rise
as the labor situation deteriorates. Continue to look for more weakness in the
Euro but be aware that China
may be eager to protect their currencies by buying other foreign currencies.
This could trigger a short-covering rally.
The March British Pound finished down but off its low. In
addition, buyers came in an effort to save the currency from testing its recent
low at 1.5336. The charts are indicating more downside potential is likely.
Combined with the weak fundamentals, the Pound remains one of the weakest
The signs are there that the U.K. economy is still at risk for a
protracted recovery. Additional pressure is coming from dovish comments from
the Bank of England during its testimony before Parliament. Short-term oversold
conditions could be preventing an acceleration to the downside however.
The March Swiss Franc weakened on Tuesday. Talk circulated
that the Swiss National Bank may have once again intervened as the Euro
weakened. The SNB is mandated to protect its economy and has been intervening
heavily lately during the Euro crisis. At this time, the weaker Euro is putting
Swiss exports at risk.
Jittery investors seeking protection against a decline in
higher risk assets bought the Japanese Yen on Tuesday.Short traders should be watching for a
technical bounce in the 1.1074 to 1.1126 retracement zone. Downside momentum
should continue once this zone is penetrated. Breaking back under 1.1074 could
trigger short-term weakness.
The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar was under selling
pressure all day because of the drop in gold and crude oil. Both precious
metals and energy make up a large portion of the Canadian GDP so lower prices
will adversely affect the economy. Tuesdayâ€™s rally retraced to 50% of the
recent rally from .9274 to .9643.
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