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Wednesday February 24, 2010 - 11:01:11 GMT
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European Market Update: Session shrugs off risk aversion factors; German CSU legislator Michelbach: Aid to Greece is not legally possible; Hungary says to miss IMF approved deficit targets

Wednesday, February 24, 2010 5:57:23 AM

 European Market Update: Session shrugs off risk aversion factors; German CSU legislator Michelbach: Aid to Greece is not legally possible; Hungary says to miss IMF approved deficit targets


- (GE) Germany Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y -2.4% v -2.4%e
- (GE) Germany Q4 Final Private Consumption: -1.0% v -0.8%e; Government Spending: -0.6% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -0.7% v -1.3%e; Construction Investment: -0.5% v -2.0%e; Domestic Demand: -2.1% v -0.6%e; Imports: -1.8% v -0.5%e; Exports: 3.0% v 1.9%e
- (GE) Germany Mar GFK Consumer Confidence: 3.2 v 3.0e
(MA) Malaysia Q4 GDP y/y: 4.5% v 3.2%e; Annual GDP: -1.7% v -2.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Retail Trade Y/Y: -7.4% v -7.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb Business Confidence: 4.1 v 1.6 prior; Consumer Confidence: -9.8 v -11.5 prior; Business & Confidence Index: 1.3 v -1.1% prior
- (AS) Austria Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.7% prior
- (MA) Malaysia Jan CPI Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Unemployment rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e
- (IC) Iceland Feb CPI M/M: 1.1% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.6% prior
- (IT) Italy Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v -0.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Central Bank Quarterly report: To miss IMF approved budget deficit target for both 2010 and 2011
- (SA) South Africa Jan CPI (all items) M/M; 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.4%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Dec Industrial New Orders M/M: 0.8% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 9.5% v 7.6%e

- Equities: European equity markets inherited a mixed picture following Asian trade that saw significant losses with the conspicuous absence of mainlined Chinese bourses. Core European bourses opened bid, however, taking strength from a mixed, but positively biased earnings releases in the premarket. French names Accor [AC.FR] and Vallourec [VK.FR] rotated higher following final FY09 numbers, along with German listed medical names Fresenious SE [FRE.GE] and Fresenius Medical [FME.GE]. Equity markets moved sharply lower after 4:00EST as commentary from German CSU (Bavarian branch of coalition party CDU) politicians appeared to once more throw cold water on an aid package for Greece. Markets surrendered positive territory and were led down by the DAX. After stabilizing, rotations have been upwards but into 5:30EST, only the FTSE has managed to move convincingly back into positive territory. Specific downside movers include Commerzbank [CBK.GE] following press speculation of a €3B 2010 capital raise and Wolseley [WOS.UK] which is rotating off its upward sprint yesterday. Declines in metals and minerals have depressed basic resource sector players while oil rolled over along with natural gas that continues a downward trend. Equities are on a two-session loss streak, trading on mixed, but light volumes.

In individual equities: CNP Assurances [CNP.FR]: Reports FY09 Net €1B v €998Me, Rev €32.6B v €34.2Be. || Accor [AC.FR]: Reports final FY09 Net loss €282M v €85Me. || Barratt [BDEV.UK]: Reports H1 Pretax loss £48.5M v loss £80.6M y/y, Rev £872M v £858Me. || Lafarge [LG.FR]: Announces asset swap; To expand presence in Brazil through CIMPOR swap. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW]: Reports Jan truck sales 9.4K v 10.2K y/y (-8% y/y). ||

- Speakers: German CSU legislator Michelbach commented that aid to Greece was not legally possible and added that Germany must make it clear that it was not paying for Greece. He stated that the Maastrict Stability pact must have sanctions.***World Bank Chief Economist Lin: East Asian nations unlikely to face sovereign risks *** Hong Kong Fin Sec Tsang: Government will react quickly to property speculation *** China Advisory Body stated that China was prudent on the yuan currency issues; Any change in the yuan fx rate would NOT be large and any revaluation would be a gradual process. Premier Wen's work report to address the yuan issues *** BoJ's Deputy Gov Yamaguchi stated that Japan's fiscal balance in severe state and that market participants are focused on Japan fiscal consolidation. He did note that markets have absorbed Japanese bonds smoothly. *** Hungary Central Bank released its quarterly report and noted that the country would miss its forecasted budget deficit targets for both 2010 and 2011 periods ( 2010 budget deficit at 4.2% of GDP against a 3.8% IMF target and 2011 budget forecasted at 4.3% v 2.8% IMF target). The Central bank added that it would need to take additional actions to reach targets***China State Council reiterated the gov't view that recovery fundamentals in some sectors remained uncertain and would take further measures to boost industry and promote consolidation***BOE's Posen commented that anyone betting on high UK inflation over next decade would lose money. He noted that movements in money base had little impact on inflation. He also stated that the BOE would consider additional QE if recovery stumbles ***ECB Bini Smaghi commented that policymakers must work together to reduce uncertainty. Monetary and fiscal measures have historically averted the crisis but would not alone end the crisis.

- Currencies: Several risk aversion headlines failed to provide the USD enough momentum to move beyond established ranges. The EUR/USD slightly firmer from its Asian opening levels with the pair probing the mid 1.35 area ahead of the NY morning. Sovereign concerns continued to simmer in Europe when a German lawmaker stated that aid to Greece was not legally possible. The central European issues also simmered after the Hungarian central bank noted that the country would miss the IMF approved deficit to GDP targets for both 2010 and 2011.

- Fixed Income: Supply has been well received today in Europe. The UK DMO's sale of £3B in 9 year Gilts was covered a very healthy 2.25 times while Portugal successfully sold €1B in 5s. Still no word from Greece on its impending 10y issuance but spreads versus Bunds are back at +335bps after a member of Germany's ruling collation stated that "Aid to Greece is not legally possible, Germany must make it clear that it is not paying for Greece". The UK yield curve has flattened post auction, with a reiteration from the BoE's Posen (more QE is still possible) providing a boost for the long end.

- Geopolitical: Opposition parties in Cote d'ivoire have indicated a willingness to cooperate with a newly formed government in an effort to break two weeks of protests. This week has seen the death of 7 protestors at the hands of the military as pressure has been raised against President Laurent Gbagbo. Cote d'ivorie is closely monitored due to its dominate global position in the production of coca (37% of global output). Political tension has added to an ongoing drought and infrastructure concern that is seen as threatening this year's crop. ***Nigeria's ailing, absentee President Umaru Yar'Adua has unexpectedly returned from a three month hospital stay in Saudi Arabia. Circumstances surrounding arrival remain unclear with reports that Yar'Adua was transferred from the plane to an unknown residence by ambulance following landing. Reminder, on Feb 10 the Nigeria National Assembly empowered then Vice Pres Goodluck Jonathan as acting President.

- German CSU legislator Michelbach: Aid to Greece is not legally possible
- Fed's Bernanke monetary policy report to House panel (Humphrey Hawkins)
- SEC considering new short sale restrictions.
- WSJ: Treasury to borrow $200B and leave it on deposit at the Fed making it easier to raise rates when the time comes.

***Looking Ahead:
- (BR) Brazil Jan Central Gov't Budget: No est v 1.7B prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 25th: No est v -2.1% prior
- (PD) Poland central Bank interest rate decision: Consensus analyst expectations is for the base Rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%
- (BR) Brazil Jan Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 1.4T prior; Private Bank Lending: No est v 824B prior
- 10:00 (US) US Tsy Sec Geithner testifies to House Budget Committee on 2011 Spending
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke monetary policy report to House panel (Humphrey Hawkins)
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Q4 GDP Y/Y: 1.1%e v -3.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan New Home Sales: 353Ke v 342K prior
- 10:30 (US) DoE Weekly Inventories: Crude:+2Me; Gasoline: +500Ke; Distillate: -1.7Me; Utilization: 80%e
- 12:00 (FR) France Jan Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.6M prior; Net Change Job Seekers: 10.0Ke v -18.7K prior
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell C$400M 30-year real return bonds
- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell notes and bonds
- 12:30 (UR) Ukraine to sell 43-year bonds
- 13:00 (US) US Treasury to sell $42B in 5-year notes
- 14:00 (EU) ECB's Bini Smaghi
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 17.3% prior



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