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Thursday February 25, 2010 - 10:54:08 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 25/02/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis February 25,
Existing Home Sales
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the
Existing Home Sales report. It measures the annualized number of existing
residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis
the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 5.5
The Euro broke the
support specified in yesterdayâ€™s reports 1.3514, dropped about 70 pips without
reaching the suggested target 1.3422. Also, the price managed to keep trading
above last Fridayâ€™s low, the important bottom 1.3442. Today, we see this support
as the most important, and if the price stays above it, the odds of rising will
be bigger. But these odds will suffer a severe hit once we break this level,
even with very few pips. If 1.3442 gets broken, we see the Euro continuing the
drop that started yesterday at 1.3625, and we see it leaving the 1.34 areas
targeting 1.3384 as a first target for this break, and 1.3299 as a second
target. The resistance is at 1.3495, and breaking it would indicate we are
correcting yesterdayâ€™s drop. The ideal target for such a correction would be
1.3558, and if broken, the Euro will show enough strength to jump to 1.3632, and
may be more.
â€¢ 1.3442: Feb 19th low.
â€¢ 1.3384: Jan
19th 2009 high.
â€¢ 1.3299: Apr 24th high.
1.3495: Feb 17th high.
â€¢ 1.3558: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3632: the falling trend line from
Dollar-Yen broke the
support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 89.90 and stopped only 8 pips before
reaching the first suggested target 89.22. Breaking 89.90 holds a lot of
importance on the technical side, because this area was the most important
support for the short term, and because breaking it indicates the drop from
92.31 is (probably) not just a corrective one, and that is why it will go on, on
the short term. Yesterdayâ€™s target 89.22, will be todayâ€™s support, and if the
price manages to break it, we will move towards the next set of targets in the
88 area, most important of which are 88.53 & 88.00. As for the resistance,
it is at 89.75, and breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short
term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.39, 90.72
& 91.05. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.75
â€¢ 89.22: Feb 10th low.
â€¢ 88.53: Feb 4th
â€¢ 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€¢ 89.75: the most important resistance on the
â€¢ 90.39: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
For information on US dollar index see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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