Today, Fed Chairman Bernanke will continue his testimony
before the House Financial Services Committee. Yesterday he said the U.S.
economic recovery has been â€śnascentâ€ť and requires low interest rates to help it
sustain growth. He also said that low employment and subdued inflation allow
the FOMC to keep downside pressure on interest rates.
Todayâ€™s January Durable Goods Report came out better than
expected, but that wasnâ€™t enough to help the equities. Stock indices are down
on the news that initial claims rose by 22,000 to 496,000. Traders had been
looking for a decrease.
stock markets are under pressure overnight because of another shift in risk
sentiment. Sovereign debt issues in Greece are putting fear into traders
triggering liquidation of risky asset position. Itâ€™s highly doubtful that
Bernanke will say anything today which can turn this market around so traders
should look for downside pressure throughout the day. A break through 1090.00
in the March E-mini S&P 500 could trigger a further decline to 1084.50.
March Treasury Bonds and March Treasury Notes soared to the
upside overnight as traders sought protection in lower yielding assets. The
strong rally in the March T-Bonds is reversing yesterdayâ€™s lower close, putting
the market in a position to take out Wednesdayâ€™s high at 118â€™09 and a .618
retracement level at 118â€™05. The charts indicate there is room to the upside to
at least 119â€™00.
April Gold traded is trading lower but still holding a key
50% level at $1088.00 despite a stronger Dollar. A failure to hold this level
could trigger a further decline to $1077.75. The news out of Greece this
morning could actually turn out to be bullish if traders decide there is too
much risk in holding paper currency. This could lead to higher closes in both
gold and the Dollar.
April Crude Oil is trading lower because of the stronger
Dollar and weaker Euro. Like gold, crude oil may take out the characteristics
of a means of exchange and actually rally if traders decide the situation in Greece triggers
demand for hard assets rather than paper currency.
The U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning against most
major currencies except the Japanese Yen as global sovereign debt and economic
issues drive up demand for lower yielding assets.
The March British Pound is trading sharply lower as the
trend accelerated to the downside following a break of recent minor support at
1.5352.The heavy selling pressure took
the Cable down to a major 50% price at 1.5272 where it has found temporary
support. The poor outlook for the U.K. economy was reinforced
overnight when it was reported that Fourth Quarter Investments unexpectedly
The bad news overnight reinforced bearish investor sentiment
that the U.K.
economy risks a protracted recovery. Furthermore, talk earlier this week that
the Bank of England is considering expanding and extending its quantitative
easing program continued to feed the bear market.
Following this initial move to the downside, traders may
take a break as they await tomorrowâ€™s final Fourth Quarter GDP Report.
The March Euro is down sharply overnight as Greek sovereign
debt issues once again threaten to spread throughout Europe.
Itâ€™s been reported that the S&P Corp. is considering another cut in Greeceâ€™s
debt rating.Fear is spreading that this
may not be the only country facing a debt rating cut. The overnight weakness is
threatening to take out last weekâ€™s swing bottom at 1.3443.
Risk aversion is helping to drive up demand for the Japanese
Yen. Traders have been selling the U.S. Dollar overnight while taking
protection in the lower yielding Yen. Last nightâ€™s upside action stopped at a
50% price at 1.1230, triggering a technical bounce, but traders most likely
donâ€™t expect this level to hold as resistance.
Problems with the Euro are helping to pressure the March
Swiss Franc. The weaker the Euro gets, the greater the chance the Swiss
National Bank will intervene to protect its currency. Look for the Swiss Franc
to take out its most recent bottom at .9176 if the Euro takes out its bottom at
The stronger Dollar is putting pressure on Gold and Crude
Oil which is helping to pressure the March Canadian Dollar. Both precious
metals and energy account for a large percentage of the Canadian economy.
Holding below .9459 could drive this market lower to the next retracement level
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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