Friday February 26, 2010 - 03:40:24 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 26-Feb-2010 - 0337 GMT
The US Markets closed lower yestarday. The Dow (10321.03) closed down 0.51% and the Nasdaq (2234.22) closed down 0.08%. The Markets were down on account of renewed concerns of Economic development on account of surge in US job losses and concerns over the Greek Economy. We continue to hold our view of a resistance near 10700-50 levels on the Dow.
The Asian Equities are trading mixed today. The Shanghai (3053.80) is trading lower by 0.22%, the Nikkei (10144.88) is trading higher by 0.42% and the HangSeng (20647.05) is traing higher by 1.21%. The Nikkei looks weak and has an immediate support near 9800-50 levels while the Shanghai looks strong with an immediate resistance near 3150-75 levels. The Sexnsex closed flat yesterday. The Sensex has been relatively quiet this week, ahead of the Union Budget today and further direction of the move will be determined by the Budget.
Crude (78.60) fell sharply failing once again to see a break above the Resistance at 81 and recorded a low of 77.05 yesterday as the unexpected increase in the initial jobless claims left the markets worried about the economic recovery. Support is seen at 77.50 a break below which might pull it further down towards 75. If it holds 80-81 can be revisited once again.
Gold (1108.40) has bounced back from the Resistance-turned-Support Trendline (1088) to close above 1100 as the dollar weakend following the weak economic data release yesterday. The 1120-40 Resistance region might be tested once again in the coming days if it continues to trade above 1100. The significant Support seen below 1100 is 1080.
The pattern of Crude/Gold and Gold/Crude ratio converging towards each other and then diverging (mentioned in the Morning Briefing dated 23-Feb-10) looks to be intact with yesterday's rise in gold and fall in crude. To see the Crude/Gold ratio graph click on the following link:
The Yen appreciated while the Pound depreciated sharply against most major currencies yesterday. The Yen recorded a low of 88.80 against Dollar (USD-JPY) and 119.64 against Euro (EUR-JPY). Though it has depreciated slightly since then today morning because of month end demand from importers, the technicals suggests that the Yen could appreciate further. The Pound fell sharply yesterday and broke below the psychological 1.52 barrier against Dollar. Further fall towards 1.50 may be seen next week.
The Euro has come up today morning after recording a low of 1.3451 yesterday. Expect the pair to fall gradually towards 1.33-1.32 over the next few days. Upside may be capped near 1.3680. The Aussie (0.8892) has risen from a low of 0.8801 recorded yesterday and may face Resistance today near 0.8950. RBA Meet is Dollar-Swiss (1.0778) rose towards 1.0880 yesterday and has Support near 1.07 today.
In Asia, USD-SGD (1.4081) and USD-KRW (1160.90) are trading flattish today. Dollar-Rupee closed higher at 46.3950 yesterday and may attempt breaking 46.50 over the next few days. The Union Budget today may not have a major impact on Rupee.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The yields on US Treasuries have dipped yesterday. The 2Y and 10Y yields dipped 3 and 5 bps to quote at 0.83% and 3.64% respectively.
Next week there are a number of interest rate announcements by central banks the world over. The RBA, the BOC, the BOE and the ECB are expected to announce their interest rate decisons.
11:00 GMT IN GDP
09:30 GMT UK GDP Q4 '09 (Pre)
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.1%
10:00 GMT EU Jan CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.2%...Previous 1.1%
13:30 GMT US GDP Q4 '09 (Pre)
...Expected 5.6%...Previous 5.7%
15:00 GMT Jan US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 5.51 Mln...Previous 5.45 Mln
EU Biz Climate
...Actual 97.4...Previous 97.1
Jan US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual 3.0%...Previous 1.0%
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