Report that Germany May Buy Greek Bonds Boosts EUR USD
The Euro rallied on Friday after Bloomberg reported that Germany may buy
Greek bonds.Shorts read this as a
potential vote of confidence for Greece and used the news as an
excuse to cover positions. The strong rally put the EUR USD in a position to
turn the main trend to up on a rally through the last main top at 1.3692.
Despite a rise in Fourth Quarter GDP, the GBP USD finished
lower on Friday, but off its low. Fridayâ€™s action was an indication of just how
weak the U.K.
economy is. Traders still feel economic problems, political woes and the
possibility of more quantitative easing by the Bank of England may be too much
to overcome in the short run. The weak close put this market slightly under a
key 50% level at 1.5271.
Greater demand for higher risk assets helped to pressure the
USD JPY, but the break stalled following a test of an uptrending Gann angle at
88.77.This weekâ€™s action indicates that
the stock market rally and demand for commodities is still alive which could
pressure the USD JPY further. The current administration in Japan is not expected to intervene
unless they feel the current strength in the Japanese Yen is being triggered by
speculation and volatility. Look for an acceleration to the downside if the
main bottom at 88.55 and the .618 level at 88.24 fail to hold on this current
Risk sentiment appears to be shifting once again toward
demand for higher yielding assets. This helped to boost gold, crude oil and
stock prices, sending the USD CAD lower. The recent rally did not change the
trend to up and appears to have been a retracement into a resistance zone at
1.0574 to 1.0623. Look for more downside pressure next week, but for this
market to remain inside the main range of 1.0224 to 1.0780.
The improving Euro helped to ease the possibility of an
intervention by the Swiss National Bank. This triggered the weakness in the USD
CHF. Fridayâ€™s break through 1.0714 turned the main trend to down, setting up
the possibility of a break to 1.0513 to 1.0423 over the near-term.
Demand for higher yielding assets helped to boost the NZD
USD and AUD USD. Volatility for both currencies was high this week, highlighted
by several shifts in direction. Now that the Fed has made it clear that interest
rates are going to remain low for â€śan extended periodâ€ť and the recent hike in
the discount rate was not a sign of a tighter monetary policy, downside
pressure may be lifted from the Aussie and Kiwi. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets
on March 2nd. Traders appear to be betting the RBA will leave interest rates
unchanged for the 2nd consecutive month.
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