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Monday March 1, 2010 - 10:33:50 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 01/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 1,
Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home
Traders of North America anticipate the decision of the Bank of
Canada (BOC) on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest
rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of
the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract
foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can
dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than
expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate
is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict the reading will stay at a
rate of 0.25%.
broke the resistance specified in Fridayâ€™s report 1.3617, only to reach 1.3681.
And after falling again closer to 1.36, the resistance 1.3648 came back into
play, but the most important resistance in these areas is provided by the
falling trend line from 1.3838 which is currently at 1.3713. We see that a break
of 1.3648 means that the price will be heading to test the most important
resistance (1.3713) as a first target for this break. And if this is also
broken, we will head towards the second target 1.3810. The support is at 1.3589,
and breaking it would leave us with no reason to wait for a test of 1.3713 in
the short term. On the contrary we will be closer to a new test of the important
support area between Wednesdayâ€™s low 1.3450, and Feb 18th low 1.3442. If the
Euro breaks support at 1.3589, the downtrend will resume, targeting 1.3496 &
â€¢ 1.3589: the low since this weekâ€™s open.
1.3496: Feb 18th low.
â€¢ 1.3442: Feb 19th low.
1.3648: important intraday top.
â€¢ 1.3713: the falling trend line from
â€¢ 1.3810: important resistance level on hourly
Dollar-Yen broke the
support specified in Fridayâ€™s report 89.50, but it stopped 19 pips before the
suggested target 88.53. And as we start a new week, we see the Dollar-Yen trying
to break the falling trend line from 92.31 on the intraday charts. If it
succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This
trend line is very close to the resistance 89.34, and that is why this
resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair
is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels
are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets
for the 89.34 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far
(please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day,
and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue,
and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably
important support levels.
â€¢ 88.81: Oct 7th low.
88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 87.35: Dec 9th
â€¢ 89.34: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short
â€¢ 90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
â€¢ 90.83: Fibonacci
38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
For information on US dollar index see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
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13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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