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Monday March 1, 2010 - 10:33:50 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 01/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 1,
Fundamental Analysis: Existing Home
Traders of North America anticipate the decision of the Bank of
Canada (BOC) on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest
rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of
the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract
foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can
dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than
expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate
is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict the reading will stay at a
rate of 0.25%.
broke the resistance specified in Fridayâ€™s report 1.3617, only to reach 1.3681.
And after falling again closer to 1.36, the resistance 1.3648 came back into
play, but the most important resistance in these areas is provided by the
falling trend line from 1.3838 which is currently at 1.3713. We see that a break
of 1.3648 means that the price will be heading to test the most important
resistance (1.3713) as a first target for this break. And if this is also
broken, we will head towards the second target 1.3810. The support is at 1.3589,
and breaking it would leave us with no reason to wait for a test of 1.3713 in
the short term. On the contrary we will be closer to a new test of the important
support area between Wednesdayâ€™s low 1.3450, and Feb 18th low 1.3442. If the
Euro breaks support at 1.3589, the downtrend will resume, targeting 1.3496 &
â€¢ 1.3589: the low since this weekâ€™s open.
1.3496: Feb 18th low.
â€¢ 1.3442: Feb 19th low.
1.3648: important intraday top.
â€¢ 1.3713: the falling trend line from
â€¢ 1.3810: important resistance level on hourly
Dollar-Yen broke the
support specified in Fridayâ€™s report 89.50, but it stopped 19 pips before the
suggested target 88.53. And as we start a new week, we see the Dollar-Yen trying
to break the falling trend line from 92.31 on the intraday charts. If it
succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This
trend line is very close to the resistance 89.34, and that is why this
resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair
is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels
are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets
for the 89.34 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far
(please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day,
and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue,
and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably
important support levels.
â€¢ 88.81: Oct 7th low.
88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 87.35: Dec 9th
â€¢ 89.34: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short
â€¢ 90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
â€¢ 90.83: Fibonacci
38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
For information on US dollar index see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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