The U.S. Dollar is expected to open higher this morning
based on its strong overnight performance. Risk sentiment appears to be waning
following early session strength. Commodity and equity linked currencies have
reversed course after trading higher most of the overnight session.
The weakest currency is the British Pound. Overnight the GBP
USD began to accelerate to the downside after running stops under 1.50.Traders tried to establish support at a major
.618 level at 1.4854 but this also failed, sending the market to 1.4780. The
new resistance is the 50% level at 1.5271.
Politics added to the negative sentiment hurting the British
Pound this morning. Recent polls are indicating that the U.K. may have
its first minority government since 1974. Investors believe that this could
hurt the countryâ€™s efforts to cut its deficit.Also driving the Cable lower are reports that the EU is close to a
resolution of the Greek budget issue. This helped trigger the early break in
the British Pound when the Euro strengthened suddenly.
The Wall Street Journal reported over the week-end that Germany and France
have a plan to bailout Greece
with as much as 30 billion Euros ($41 billion). This came on the heels of a
late session report on Friday by Bloomberg News which cited an anonymous source
claiming that the German state-owned bank KfW Group may buy up to 25 billion
Euros in Greek bonds as a precaution against other support means drying
Both stories indicate that a solution to the Greek budget
deficit crisis is near. This is helping to keep the EUR USD inside a tight
range of 1.3692 to 1.3443. A breakout over the high end of the range will turn
the main trend to up. Breaking through the lower end of the range will reaffirm
the downtrend and could lead to an acceleration to the downside.
The recent weakness in the Euro seems to be making the
European Union nervous. In a statement released overnight, EU Monetary Affairs
Commissioner Rehn urged Greece
to announce more measures to shore up its budget soon. He also added that the
EU was â€śsure we will overcomeâ€ť the Greek fiscal challenge.
equity markets are a sign that investors may be holding on to the slight chance
that risk sentiment will remain strong throughout the trading day. This may be
the reason why the USD JPY is trading better this morning.Should equity markets turn down then look for
the Japanese Yen to strengthen.
The weaker Euro is helping to boost the USD CHF. Once again,
traders are taking a defensive stance against the Swiss Franc in anticipation
of a possible intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The trend turned down
last week when the USD CHF broke through a swing bottom at 1.0714. Although
there was little follow-through to the downside, the trend will remain down
unless the last main top at 1.0878 is violated. This is unlikely unless the
Euro makes a new move low.
Weaker Gold and Crude Oil are helping to underpin the USD
CAD. Traders are also expecting the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates
unchanged at tomorrowâ€™s meeting. There was early chatter that the improving
economy may lead the BoC to drop a few hints that interest rates would rise
shortly after June. Like the U.S.,
the Canadian economy is improving, but low employment continues to remain a key
The AUD USD had a volatile overnight session. News that the
manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in two years helped to
support it, but a report that the current deficit widened in the Fourth Quarter
gave control back to the bears. In addition, a report stating that Chinese
Manufacturing PMI fell more than expected indicates that its expansion is
declining. This is not good for the Australian economy. Traders remain mixed
about whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates
at tomorrowâ€™s meeting.
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