Stock Traders Ignoring Forex Markets; Risk Bet Seems to be on
stock indices are trading better this morning ahead of the U.S. session. Although they are off
their highs, there seems to be enough demand for higher risk despite the
strengthening Dollar and the falling Euro and British Pound. This could mean
that traders are confident that the EU and Greece
are close to reaching an agreement regarding the budget deficit crisis or it
may be a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy. Traders may turn
against risk if the Euro continues to weaken.
economic reports may have some say in the matter. Personal income is expected
to show no growth while consumer spending is predicted to show a modest gain.
The ISM Manufacturing Index has been up for 6 straight months, but his month is
called flat. The predicted range is 55 to 60. Finally, Construction Spending is
called lower. The drop in home sales should have a negative influence on
construction spending. Early guesses for Fridayâ€™s Non-Farm Payrolls Report is
for a loss of 50,000 jobs.
June Treasury futures are trading lower. Traders donâ€™t seem
to be too concerned about risk in the pre-market trade. Look for strong
economic reports to send the June Treasury Bonds and June Treasury Notes lower.
A plunge in the equity markets is also likely to support the Treasuries.
The stronger Dollar is pressuring both April Gold and June
Crude Oil. Look for this trend to continue if the Euro and British Pound
continue to drop sharply.
The U.S. Dollar is expected to open higher this morning
based on its strong overnight performance. Risk sentiment appears to be waning
following early session strength. Commodity and equity linked currencies have
reversed course after trading higher most of the overnight session.
The weakest currency is the British Pound. Overnight the
March British Pound began to accelerate to the downside after running stops
under 1.50.Traders tried to establish
support at a major .618 level at 1.4854 but this also failed, sending the
market to 1.4780. The new resistance is the 50% level at 1.5271.
Politics added to the negative sentiment hurting the British
Pound this morning. Recent polls are indicating that the U.K. may have its first minority
government since 1974. Investors believe that this could hurt the countryâ€™s
efforts to cut its deficit.Also driving
the Cable lower are reports that the EU is close to a resolution of the Greek
budget issue. This helped trigger the early break in the British Pound when the
Euro strengthened suddenly.
The Wall Street Journal reported over the week-end that Germany and France
have a plan to bailout Greece
with as much as 30 billion Euros ($41 billion). This came on the heels of a
late session report on Friday by Bloomberg News which cited an anonymous source
claiming that the German state-owned bank KfW Group may buy up to 25 billion
Euros in Greek bonds as a precaution against other support means drying
Both stories indicate that a solution to the Greek budget
deficit crisis is near. This is helping to keep the March Euro inside a tight
range of 1.3692 to 1.3443. A breakout over the high end of the range will turn
the main trend to up. Breaking through the lower end of the range will reaffirm
the downtrend and could lead to an acceleration to the downside.
The recent weakness in the Euro seems to be making the
European Union nervous. In a statement released overnight, EU Monetary Affairs
Commissioner Rehn urged Greece
to announce more measures to shore up its budget soon. He also added that the
EU was â€śsure we will overcomeâ€ť the Greek fiscal challenge.
equity markets are a sign that investors may be holding on to the slight chance
that risk sentiment will remain strong throughout the trading day. This may be
the reason why the March Japanese Yen is trading lower this morning.Should equity markets turn down then look for
the Japanese Yen to strengthen.
The weaker Euro is helping to pressure the March Swiss
Franc. Once again, traders are taking a defensive stance against the Swiss
Franc in anticipation of a possible intervention by the Swiss National Bank.
The trend turned up last week when the Swiss Franc broke through a swing top at
.9334. Although there was little follow-through to the upside, the trend will
remain up unless the last main bottom at .9193 is violated. This is unlikely
unless the Euro makes a new move low.
Weaker Gold and Crude Oil are helping to pressure the March
Canadian Dollar. Traders are also expecting the Bank of Canada to leave
interest rates unchanged at tomorrowâ€™s meeting. There was early chatter that
the improving economy may lead the BoC to drop a few hints that interest rates
would rise shortly after June. Like the U.S., the Canadian economy is
improving, but low employment continues to remain a key issue.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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