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Tuesday March 2, 2010 - 11:13:20 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 02/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 2,
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Traders of the US anticipate the
publication of the ADP National Employment Report tomorrow March 2. The report
measures the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of
aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S.
business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment
data, is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The
change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading
should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a
reading of -10.00K.
stopped only 4 pips above the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.3648,
and fell hard, breaking the support 1.3589, and successfully reaching the first
suggested target 1.3496. It also came sort of close to the second target 1.3442
(yesterdays low was 1.3459). We note on the attached chart that yesterdayâ€™s low
came very close to the trend line slowly rising from 1.3422, to the extent that
it could be considered as a 3rd touch of the line. Thus, this line has gained
more importance. Usually, when the price stops and creates a series of bottoms
that are so close to each other (1.3442, 1.3450 & yesterday 1.3459), and
provides us a slightly rising trend line as it is the case, a break of this line
will result in a big move on the medium term, and this is to be expected here. A
break of this line could result in a move approaching 1.30 in a very few weeks.
For the short term, the above mentioned line provides support at 1.3465, and if
it gets broken, we see the Euro falling to 1.3390 & 1.3299. The resistance
is provided by Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 1.3578, and if broken the
Euro will catch a breath, and jump to 1.3652, and may be
â€¢ 1.3465: the slightly rising trend line from
â€¢ 1.3390: Apr 13th high.
â€¢ 1.3299: Apr 24th
â€¢ 1.3578: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€¢ 1.3652: important resistance level on hourly charts.
previous well known resistance
Not a lot of motion in the
past 24 hours, it seems that this pair is still building a base, in a step to
change short term direction. Today, we see the Dollar-Yen trying to break the
falling trend line from 89.48 on the intraday charts. If it succeeds in doing
so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This trend line is very
close to the resistance 89.39, and that is why this resistance will be
resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the
short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.02,
90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.39
break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far (please refer to
the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day, and if it is
broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue, and the next
set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably important
â€¢ 88.81: Oct 7th low.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 87.35: Dec 9th
â€¢ 89.39: the slightly falling trend line from
89.48 on the intraday charts.
â€¢ 90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from
â€¢ 90.83: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
information on US dollar index see
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