Tuesday March 2, 2010 - 12:20:18 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 02-Mar-2010 - 1218 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0795/98...Holding Long
R: 1.0844 / 1.0877 / 1.0909
S: 1.0800 / 1.0750-30 / 1.0700
After rising sharply and recording a high of 1.0889 during the day, Swiss has fallen once again and is now trading just above 1.08. Immediate Support is seen at 1.08, a strong break below which might pull it down towards 1.0750-30 in the US session today. However, the broader picture continue to remain bullish for a rise towards 1.0900-50 in the coming days.
The significant levels to watch for on the upside are 1.0844 (100-Week-MA), 1.0877 (Trendline Resistance on the monthly candles), 1.0909 (21-Month-MA) and 1.0940 [the 50% retracement level of the fall from 1.1965 (12-Mar-09) to 1.0075 (16-Nov-09)
USD 10K Long at 1.0725, TSL 1.0790, TP 1.0920
GBP-USD @ 1.4980/85...Bearish, but Support near 1.4850
R: 1.5007 / 1.5042-56 / 1.5114-37
S: 1.4898 / 1.4845 / 1.4750
Cable did find Support near 1.4850 mentioned in the morning. There are not too many signs of a sharp rise from here. There can be some consolidation above 1.4750 with an upside potential of 1.5100 over the next few days. This gives us the range of 1.4750-1.5100. For today, till the Support at 1.4850 continues to hold, this range can be narrowed to 1.4850 - 1.5100.
The pair is however overall bearish. A break below 1.4750 may find important Support near 1.4580 next and 1.4350 thereafter (76.4% retracement of the rise since Jan '09).
AUD-USD @ 0.9035/39...Holding Short
R: 0.9040-70 / 0.9120 / 0.9180-0.9200
S: 0.8980 / 0.8955-40 / 0.8920-00
Aussie has risen breaking above 0.90. Immediate Resistance is seen in 0.9040-70 region which might be tested in the US session today. A strong break above this Resistance region (0.9040-70) might increase the chances of further rise towards 0.9180-0.9200. However, if this Resistance region holds, we might see a pull back towards 0.8950-20.
AUD 10K Short at 0.8960, SL 0.9050, TP 0.8930 (Changed from Open)
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