Investor optimism over a resolution to the sovereign debt
problem in Greece and
improvements in the U.S.
economy are helping to boost U.S.
equity markets following a change in trend to the upside on Monday. Traders
expect the trend to continue today as the charts indicate very little
resistance to the upside. The lack of major economic reports today indicates
that traders are likely to focus on any new developments coming out of Greece.
The key to an early rally will be whether U.S. investors decide to chase the
markets higher after a strong overnight gain. If buyers back off, then look for
an early retracement to the downside.
Treasury futures are trading lower as sovereign debt fears
eased demand for lower yielding, lower risk assets. After reaching resistance
at 118â€™24, the June Bonds may see a short-term correction to 116â€™00 over the
The possibility of a weaker Dollar because of optimism that
a deal will be reached between Greece
and the European Union is helping to boost demand for higher risk assets,
thereby underpinning both April Gold and June Crude Oil.
Aggressive buyers stepped in and shorts covered some of
their positions to stop a potential acceleration to the downside after the Euro
briefly pierced its recent main bottom at 1.3443. The strong recovery took the
March Euro higher, putting it in a position to post a possible closing price
reversal bottom. Although the main trend remains down, the inability to break
it sharply after breaching the most recent bottom indicates that shorts may be
unwilling to continue to apply more selling pressure because of the possibility
of a resolution to the Greek budget crisis.
While European Union officials continue to ask Greece to make more budget cuts, rumors continue
to swirl that France and Germany
remain ready to offer a bailout package once sufficient cuts have been made. In
addition, support may also become available through a Greek bond issuance that
is expected to draw wide interest from other EU members.
The March British Pound is trading lower but this market has
stabilized after yesterdayâ€™s sharp break to the downside. Aggressive sellers
hit the British Pound during Mondayâ€™s session after a poll revealed that the
election may shift the power to the minority party for the first time since
1974. Bearish traders feel that this power shift may make it more difficult to
enact budget cuts in order to short up the growing fiscal deficit. The fear is
that the growing budget deficit may trigger a situation to the one that Greece
and some other EU nations are facing.
The March Australian Dollar is trading higher after a choppy
overnight trade. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark
interest rate overnight by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Most traders feel this
move was done to fight inflation. The muted reaction by the Aussie indicates
that the rate hike was widely expected after the RBA refrained from a rate hike
in February. In his statement, Governor Glenn Stevens also expressed worry
about the situation in Greece,
â€śConcerns regarding some sovereigns remain elevatedâ€ť.The current rally has this market in a
position to challenge the recent main top at .9070.
The March New Zealand Dollar is trading lower ahead of the New York opening. Some
pressure has been put on this market after the rate hike by the Reserve Bank of
Although the main trend is down, sellers have been relatively absent since last
weekâ€™s large plunge to the downside. Short-term, it appears that buyers have
been stepping in on the dips which could trigger a short-covering rally. The
main trend will turn back to up on a trade through the last main top at .7057.
The March Japanese Yen continues to remain in a tight range.
This market seems to be trading as if investors are uncertain about the
sovereign debt situation in Greece.
Although the U.S.
stock markets are trading firm overnight, this strength may be providing
resistance to the Japanese Yen but has failed to encourage the strong selling
that one would have expected because of increasing demand for higher risk
Buying pressure continues to drive the March Canadian Dollar
higher after yesterdayâ€™s better than expected rise in Canadian Fourth Quarter
GDP. Yesterday it was reported that GDP rose by 5.0% rather than the forecast
4.2%.This is an indication that the
economy is improving, bringing the Bank of Canada closer to hiking interest
rates. At this morningâ€™s meeting, the BoC is expected to leave interest rates
unchanged, but should offer language that it remains poised to hike rates if
the economy can show sustained growth. Like the U.S., the weak employment situation
may be holding the BoC back from raising rates.
Although the Euro reached a new move low last night, the
March Swiss Franc did not break through the recent bottom at .0878. This could
be an indication that the market does not expect the Swiss National Bank .9176
to intervene because of improving conditions regarding the Greek budget
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