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Tuesday March 2, 2010 - 15:25:30 GMT
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Optimism Continues to Support Stock Market Rise.

Investor optimism over a resolution to the sovereign debt problem in Greece and improvements in the U.S. economy are helping to boost U.S. equity markets following a change in trend to the upside on Monday. Traders expect the trend to continue today as the charts indicate very little resistance to the upside. The lack of major economic reports today indicates that traders are likely to focus on any new developments coming out of Greece. The key to an early rally will be whether U.S. investors decide to chase the markets higher after a strong overnight gain. If buyers back off, then look for an early retracement to the downside.

 

Treasury futures are trading lower as sovereign debt fears eased demand for lower yielding, lower risk assets. After reaching resistance at 118’24, the June Bonds may see a short-term correction to 116’00 over the short-run.

 

The possibility of a weaker Dollar because of optimism that a deal will be reached between Greece and the European Union is helping to boost demand for higher risk assets, thereby underpinning both April Gold and June Crude Oil.

 

Aggressive buyers stepped in and shorts covered some of their positions to stop a potential acceleration to the downside after the Euro briefly pierced its recent main bottom at 1.3443. The strong recovery took the March Euro higher, putting it in a position to post a possible closing price reversal bottom. Although the main trend remains down, the inability to break it sharply after breaching the most recent bottom indicates that shorts may be unwilling to continue to apply more selling pressure because of the possibility of a resolution to the Greek budget crisis.

 

While European Union officials continue to ask Greece to make more budget cuts, rumors continue to swirl that France and Germany remain ready to offer a bailout package once sufficient cuts have been made. In addition, support may also become available through a Greek bond issuance that is expected to draw wide interest from other EU members.

 

The March British Pound is trading lower but this market has stabilized after yesterday’s sharp break to the downside. Aggressive sellers hit the British Pound during Monday’s session after a poll revealed that the upcoming U.K. election may shift the power to the minority party for the first time since 1974. Bearish traders feel that this power shift may make it more difficult to enact budget cuts in order to short up the growing fiscal deficit. The fear is that the growing budget deficit may trigger a situation to the one that Greece and some other EU nations are facing.

 

The March Australian Dollar is trading higher after a choppy overnight trade. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate overnight by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Most traders feel this move was done to fight inflation. The muted reaction by the Aussie indicates that the rate hike was widely expected after the RBA refrained from a rate hike in February. In his statement, Governor Glenn Stevens also expressed worry about the situation in Greece, “Concerns regarding some sovereigns remain elevated”.  The current rally has this market in a position to challenge the recent main top at .9070.

 

The March New Zealand Dollar is trading lower ahead of the New York opening. Some pressure has been put on this market after the rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Although the main trend is down, sellers have been relatively absent since last week’s large plunge to the downside. Short-term, it appears that buyers have been stepping in on the dips which could trigger a short-covering rally. The main trend will turn back to up on a trade through the last main top at .7057.

 

The March Japanese Yen continues to remain in a tight range. This market seems to be trading as if investors are uncertain about the sovereign debt situation in Greece. Although the U.S. stock markets are trading firm overnight, this strength may be providing resistance to the Japanese Yen but has failed to encourage the strong selling that one would have expected because of increasing demand for higher risk assets.

 

Buying pressure continues to drive the March Canadian Dollar higher after yesterday’s better than expected rise in Canadian Fourth Quarter GDP. Yesterday it was reported that GDP rose by 5.0% rather than the forecast 4.2%.  This is an indication that the economy is improving, bringing the Bank of Canada closer to hiking interest rates. At this morning’s meeting, the BoC is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but should offer language that it remains poised to hike rates if the economy can show sustained growth. Like the U.S., the weak employment situation may be holding the BoC back from raising rates.

 

Although the Euro reached a new move low last night, the March Swiss Franc did not break through the recent bottom at .0878. This could be an indication that the market does not expect the Swiss National Bank .9176 to intervene because of improving conditions regarding the Greek budget deficit. 

 

 

 

 

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