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FXTimes: Daily Technical Update USD/CAD How I Missed the Bearish Signals
Daily Technical Update
March 2, 2010
USD/CAD How I missed the Bearish Signals
- Daily: Towards the end of last week, the USD/CAD
was originally showing showing some bullish signals, that is until
Friday. Fridayâ€™s price action was bearish, and invalidated the bullish
assessment in the stochastic. It was turning up, but Fridayâ€™s action
brought it back down.
- Also, price action itself was bearish, an engulfing pattern after
Thursdayâ€™s rejection above the declining trendline. However on the
Friday post, I managed to miss these, or least missed posting this
outlook. (Refer to Weekly Technical Update 2.26.2010; 4th pair)
- Remember, keep your outlooks flexible. I was overly aggressive in
anticipating bullishness on the USD/CAD in the intermediate term, when
it was only so in the short-term.
- What should be projected was a declining swing projection to near the 1.03 area, or even to retest the support just above 1.02.
- The bullish outlook can still materialize, but near-term bearish
signals were ignored on Friday. This is the type of mistake that
usually follows with a conclusion that the analyst was right and wrong
at the same time. But if you break it down. I â€śMAYâ€ť be right about the
intermediate term, but that has not been confirmed. I was right about
short-term bullishness, but was WRONG in not anticipating some
near-term bearish forces. Itâ€™s all about which time-frame the outlook
- Also, keep in mind a preference for 2-swing retracements then single-swing retracements.
- Mistakes are only helpful if you learn from it, and this is a lesson in flexibility and awareness.
Commodity Trading Advisor
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