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Wednesday March 3, 2010 - 00:40:56 GMT
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April Gold Surges to Major 50% Level

The impending weaker Dollar helped to boost April Gold on Tuesday. The rally tested a major 50% price at $1136.75. Regaining this level will be a sign of strength and could trigger a further rally to $1158.50. The recent weakness in the British Pound and Euro has put gold at an all-time high in terms of these two currencies. This is a sign that traders have been diverting investment funds into gold as a hedge against currency market instability. Gold is set up for a big rally if the rising Euro drives the Dollar lower.

 

U.S. equity markets finished higher, but the rally slowed down throughout the day due to the lack of fresh buyers. Strong overnight support led to a higher opening this morning, but the rally stalled shortly after the opening. Traders seemed to be waiting for a catalyst to take the markets to the next level. The lack of fresh economic news was partially to blame for the slow down in the trade. The other reason was uncertainty over whether a resolution will be reached between the European Union and Greece.

 

June Treasury Bonds closed lower in light trading.  Higher equity markets provided some of the downside pressure. After testing a key 50% resistance level at 117’23 earlier in the week, this market seems poised to correct back to 116’04 over the short-run. Volume could be light because of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

 

The weaker Dollar and the possibility of a rally in the Euro helped to support June Crude Oil today. Tuesday’s upside surge has this market in a position to breakout over the recent main top at 81.51.

 

The March Euro posted a closing price reversal bottom after positive comments from Greek officials encouraged weak shorts to lighten up their positions. After touching a new low for the year overnight, the EUR USD turned around as the lack of fresh selling pressure scared some of the weaker shorts out of the market. Near the midsession, the Euro moved higher as the market responded to new budget cut proposals by Greece. This triggered the short-covering rally which produced the closing price reversal bottom.

 

Technically, the closing price reversal bottom is a good sign that selling pressure is drying up. Watch for a follow-through to the upside to confirm the bottom. This move should lead to a test of the recent swing top at 1.3692. A break through this price will turn the main trend to up and should trigger an acceleration to the upside as many shorts will be forced to cover. The charts indicate plenty of room to the upside with 1.4009 a possible short-term target.

 

On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar finished mixed against most majors as traders tried to decide whether it had reached the end of the rally. This morning’s surge to the upside in the March Dollar Index fell short of the recent main top at 81.43 before turning lower. This is an indication that the selling may be greater than the buying at current levels. The formation of a secondary lower top will also be a strong sign that this market is getting ready to rollover to the downside.

 

The March British Pound closed lower but inside of Monday’s range. The turnaround in the Euro took some of the pressure off the British Pound; however, it still remains weak because of political concerns, the U.K. budget deficit and the Bank of England’s soft monetary policy. A recent poll shows that the Minority may gain control of the Parliament for the first time since 1974. Investors fear that political gridlock will prevent the country from digging out of its mountains of debt. Some are saying that a Labor Party victory will lead to high interest rates and higher taxes which will drive the Sterling even lower.

 

Despite a higher stock market the March Japanese Yen rallied sending a signal that perhaps U.S. equity markets are overbought. This move could have been position squaring ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report or it could have meant that investors are anticipating a shift to the downside in the equity markets. The charts indicate support is building around a major 50% level at 1.1227. A further strengthening will trigger a test of the .618 level at 1.1356. A rally over the last main top at 1.1295 will change the main trend to up and could trigger an acceleration to the upside as stops are likely to be triggered.

 

The rally in the Euro helped drive the March Swiss Franc higher. Investors bought the Swiss Franc as they became less concerned about the possibility of another round of intervention by the Swiss National Bank. Rumors swirled late in the session that the SNB intervened, but it didn’t show up in the price action. At this time, it’s not a case of the Swiss Franc getting stronger, but the Euro getting weaker. A change in trend in the Euro could trigger a dramatic rally in the March Swiss Franc. The next possible upside target is .9526.

 

The March Canadian Dollar rallied sharply higher after the Bank of Canada left interest rates alone and reaffirmed its conditional commitment that interest rates would remain low until at least June. This didn’t matter much to traders who continued to buy the Canadian Dollar after the fourth quarter GDP report released earlier in the week showed a 5% gain versus pre-report guesses of 4.2%. Investors feel it’s not if, but when will the BoC begin raising rates. Traders are pricing in a hike for June because of the BoC statement. Its statement is more concrete than the Fed’s stance that rates will not be raised for “an extended period”.

 

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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