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Wednesday March 3, 2010 - 10:10:05 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 3,
Interest Rate Decision
European traders anticipate the publication of the
European Central Bank ( ECB ) decision on short term interest rate. The decision
on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation.
The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High
interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on
their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than
expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a reading of
The Euro broke the
support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.3465, but it did not break the
important bottom 1.3422. Then it bounced back very sharply, breaking the
resistance 1.3578 and successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.3652
with astonishing accuracy (the high so far is 1.3653). Evidence now shows that
there is a respectable probability that we have formed a short term top at
1.3653. Such evidence is provided by the overbought indicators, stopping at a
well known resistance, and the retreat that started immediately after reaching
the target. If this turns to be the case, the price will fall, and break short
term support 1.3600. And here, the odds will clearly favor a short term drop.
Ideal targets would be the important 1.3517, and if broken 1.3450. We do not
advise to take any kind of bias towards the Euro before breaking the current
daily high 1.3653. If this happens, the Euroâ€™s uprising will continue, targeting
1.3740 & 1.3810.
â€¢ 1.3600: Fibonacci 23.6% for
the short term & 38.2% for the micro term.
â€¢ 1.3517: Fibonacci 61.8% for
the short term.
â€¢ 1.3450: Feb 25th low.
1.3653: important resistance level on hourly charts.
â€¢ 1.3740: previous well
known resistance area.
â€¢ 1.3810: Feb 10th
Dollar-Yen broke the
support 88.81 only to stop in the middle of the way to the suggested target,
settling for 88.46. This break gives chance to more of the drop, but on one
important condition. This condition is to stay below, and not break, the falling
trend line from 92.13, which is currently only pips below the current price, at
88.88. If the price stays below this line, more drop is to be expected. Short
term support is at 88.53, and if broken we will move slowly towards 88, where
the targets 88.00 & 87.35 awaits. The technical outlook stays negative as
long as we are below the resistance of the day 88.88. But in case this level is
broken, USDJPY will enter a long awaited correction for the whole drop from
92.13, with the ideal targets at Dow & Fibonacci levels 89.68 &
â€¢ 88.53: the most important support on intraday
â€¢ 88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 87.35: Dec 9th
â€¢ 89.88: the falling trend line from 92.13 on
the hourly charts, the upper limit for the downtrend.
â€¢ 89.68: Dow 33.3% for
the drop from 92.31.
â€¢ 90.30: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
information on US dollar index see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
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