Besides news regarding the debt crisis in Europe,
futures and Forex traders will be focusing on todayâ€™s Challenger jobs report
and the ADP private sector jobs report for direction. Traders expect the ADP
report to show a loss of 20,000 jobs. An amount greater than 20,000 should
support the Dollar as it will indicate a weaker economy.Later in the day, the Fed releases the Beige
Book of economic conditions.
equity markets are trading flat to lower ahead of the job data reports. In
addition, traders are reacting to the mixed news that is coming out of the Euro
Zone. This news seems to be changing by the hour which is helping to create
investor indecision and some light volatility. Yesterday U.S. stock
indices opened higher but failed to maintain the upside momentum throughout the
day and weakened into the close. Investors seem to be nervous about holding
risky positions which could lead to a profit-taking break today. Worse than
expected jobs data is expected to lead to an acceleration to the downside.
Treasury markets are trading a little better in anticipation
of the weak jobs data. News that the economy lost more jobs than expected could
trigger a strong rally. This would be an indication of what to expect following
the release of Fridayâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm jobs data.
April Gold and June Crude Oil are trading higher in
anticipation of a rally in the Euro and a drop in the Dollar. Last night gold
rallied through the 50% retracement level at $1136.75 which stopped the market
on Tuesday, but failed to attract strong buying which should have driven this
market to the .618 level at $1158.52. Gold traders may be ahead of the rest of
the markets in anticipating a weaker Dollar.
The March Euro is firming overnight after Greece
announced more budget cuts in an effort to sway the European Union into
approving its bailout package.The new
plan includes higher taxes and pay cuts for government officials. Greece
has been making an effort to shore up its fiscal deficit in order to convince
the EU and investors that it is committed to taming its budget crisis. At the
same time, there is talk that Greece
is prepared to go to the International Monetary Fund if the EU fails to come
through with sufficient aid.
Technically, the Euro confirmed Tuesdayâ€™s closing price
reversal bottom with a follow-through rally last night. The current rally is
getting close to the last main top at 1.3692. A trade through this level will
turn the main trend to up for the first time since December 7th, 2009.With a record amount of short positions
against the Euro, a change in trend and a resolution to the Greek budget crisis
could trigger the start of a massive short-covering rally back to 1.4000. Gains
could be limited if shorts donâ€™t budge and if the developing deficit crisis in Spain
flares up. Talk is circulating that hedge funds may face new regulations. If
this story proves to be true then look for the short-covering rally to begin
The March British Pound is gaining back some of its loss
from earlier in the week because of the firmer Euro and on speculation that
capital will stay in the U.K.
if Prudential PLCâ€™s takeover of AIA Group, Ltd. is delayed. The developing move
looks like short-covering rather than trend changing. The poor state of the U.K.
economy, its budget deficit and a dovish monetary policy should continue to
keep a lid on appreciation. Furthermore, concerns that the Labor Party may gain
a majority stake after the upcoming election should continue to keep downside
pressure on the British Pound.
The Dollar is trading slightly lower against the Yen
overnight as traders remain a little tentative that a resolution to the Greek
budget crisis will be reached soon. After failing to extend gains to a key .618
price level at 1.1356, downside pressure is helping to push the March Japanese
Yen toward the 50% support level at 1.1227. Selling pressure came in last night
after a break through the last top at 1.1295 failed to encourage more buying. A
closing price reversal top today or a break under the 50% level at 1.1227 will
be a sign that a short-term top has been reached.
The rally in the Euro is helping to support the March Swiss
Francs. Traders are buying this currency in anticipation of a deal between Greece and the
European Union. A stronger Euro reduces the need for the Swiss National Bank to
intervene to protect its economy. The charts indicate that upside pressure
could take this market up to .9526 over the near term.
The March Canadian Dollar is trading higher, but inside of
yesterdayâ€™s range. Upside pressure is coming from a pick-up in demand for
higher risk assets as investors feel more confident that Greece and the
European Union will reach a bailout agreement.Yesterday the Bank of Canada voted to leave interest rates unchanged but
left open the door for a rate hike after June if the economy continues to heat
up. Earlier in the week it was reported that Canadian GDP grew by 5.0% versus
pre-report guesses of 4.2%.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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