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Monday March 7, 2005 - 10:09:39 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 7/3/2005

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $53.50 yesterday, flat with respect to last closing level. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.940, breaking the possible double top formation that was on the way. It looks poised for a test of its all-time highs around 11.000 very soon.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3215 level. Well, so much expectations with the NFP .... and after its release, currencies moved the opposite way, what a disappointment (again). I really donít care in the excuses and many other reasons given to explain why the USD was sold-off after the release of a good NFP number on Friday. Neither should you. This time it looked very much like a kidís game, ďoh, you see the number was a good one, but Iím going to drive it the other way just to hunt some stops around...Ē, from those who really move the market and who makes us believe fundamentals do matter when trading currencies. Leaving this nonsense apart, from a technical point of view, the single currency simply moved to the upper barrier of the current trading range 1.3090-1.3280, threatening on both a break to the downside or on an eventua resumption of the uptrend. Since fibonacci is not of more help for now (levels presented some days go are still valid), I look at the moving averages, and I see that the 20-day simple moving average is about to cross the 50-day one, so that could indicate that some bullish momentum could arise for the pair. However, while closing below 1.3310-20, pair couold be shorted again.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2672. We coould be having a bullish cross of the moving averages tomorrow.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive Ė no signal. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.9180 level. Same Friday reaction for the british currency, surging above 1.92 in a big spike after the economic release. However, the currency looks not as strong as its fellow EUR, and a break below 1.9160 would add some selling pressure to the pair. Next support is found on the 20-day moving average, around 1.9015. On the upside, resistances from 1.93 are found.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8520. We have the confirmation of the 20-day crossing the 50-day on the upside for 3 days now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Positive.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1710 level. The USD is fighting to stay above 1.17 after holding on Friday the key 1.1660 level again. However, there is an almost cross of the moving averages to the downside, so letís keep the eyes open to the price action in coming days. A break above 1.19 is needed to fully negate the current bearish tone for the pair.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2135. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is below the 20-day one only.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Positive.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.69 level. After escaping from entering the bearish downtrend again, pair rallied towards the 0.69 level, and looks posied for a test of the third dynamic fibonacci fan line today situated around 0.6935/40, which also coincides with the 50-day simple moving average, so one might expect that magnet level to work hard to attract the price action and act as a strong resistance for now.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6839 today. Pair is below both 20 and 50-day simple moving averages.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR Positive Ė signaled long february,25-. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.

toni@fxstreet.com

 

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