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Wednesday March 3, 2010 - 22:18:18 GMT
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Stocks Rally on Better ADP, ISM Services Growth

U.S. equity markets surged to the upside after the release of a better than expected ADP jobs report and a much improved ISM Services Index. The ADP figure came out at the low end of the range which gave investors a reason to believe that Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll figure may also show an improvement in the U.S. jobs situation.

Treasury markets weakened after U.S. jobs data showed improvement from the previous month and the ISM Services Index rose more than expected. Traders see this as a sign that the U.S. economy is improving which could mean the Fed hikes rates sooner than expected. Investors are also paring positions ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Technically, the charts indicate a move to 116’04 is likely over the near-term.

April Gold rallied through and is holding a key 50% level at $1136.75. A sell-off in the Dollar late in the trading session could drive this market to the next upside target at $1158.50. May Silver turned the main trend higher on the trade through $16.96. Regaining the technical level at $17.09 is a sign of strength with $17.66 the next upside target.

Technically, the crude oil charts indicates plenty of room to the upside, but the market appears to be stalling following a penetration of the last main top at 81.51 due to short-term oversold conditions. Fundamentally, the weaker Dollar is helping to boost demand for commodities, but the increase in weekly crude oil inventories is limiting the upside momentum. At the mid-session, despite the intraday slowdown, it looks as if demand for higher risk assets is winning over the increase in supply

The March Euro rose this morning to its highest level since February 17th as shorts covered positions after Greece announced additional budget cuts and tax increases in an attempt to shore up its budget and gain favors from the European Union.

Greece’s new plan to take control of its fiscal problems drew positive comments from Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker who said “Greece’s ambitious program to correct its fiscal imbalances is now credibly on track.”

Technically, the Euro’s main trend turned up this morning on the daily chart for the first time since December 7th when the currency crossed the last main top at 1.3692. The action by Greece and the possibility of new government regulation of hedge funds could trigger a massive short-covering rally over the short-run. The charts indicate that there is room to the upside to 1.4009.

The strengthening Euro has triggered some light short-covering in the March British Pound. This current move is not expected to lead to a change in trend however. The British Pound remains the weakest currency because of the U.K.’s wide budget deficit, soft monetary policy and political uncertainty.

The March Japanese Yen is trading higher at the mid-session despite strong demand for risky assets. I’m still confused about the move in the Japanese Yen. What I think is happening is the Yen isn’t getting stronger, the Dollar is getting weaker.

The strength in the Euro is helping to trigger a rally in the March Swiss Franc. The uptrend was reaffirmed following a breakout over the last main top at .9352. Traders are relieved that the Swiss National Bank intervention campaign may be over and are buying back Swiss Francs. Upside momentum could take this market up to .9526 over the short-run.


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