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Thursday March 4, 2010 - 13:18:52 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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A Full Opening Act ... to Keep Traders’ Blood Flowing

Key News
Trichet Exit Faces `Greek Roadblock' Threat to One-Size-Fits-All Approach (Bloomberg)
China misread by bulls and bears (Michael Pettis, writing in the Financial Times)
 
 Quotable
 
“After a 0.5% point contribution to Q3 GDP the Q4 Eurozone GDP report showed that inventories made a zero contribution. There was also a zero contribution from household consumption as well as government consumption expenditure with investment contributing a negative 0.2% points. The 0.1% growth for Q4 was largely led by exports which contributed 0.6% points but still less than the 1.1% contribution made during Q3 while imports made a less negative contribution of -0.3% percentage points compared to -1.0% in Q4.
 
Overall the data does little to inspire confidence that the "recovery" is self-sustainable and is reason enough to expect that the ECB will be very cautious in signaling that monetary tightening (refi rate hike) is the next natural step from a normalization of money markets. While we continue to see the ECB on hold this year there is the risk that they could be on hold until H2 2011. We will wait to see how the normalization goes but at this stage we are biased toward the lower for longer view on ECB rates.”
                     Divyang Shah, Reuters
 
FX Trading – A Full Opening Act ... to Keep Traders’ Blood Flowing
 
February US Nonfarm payrolls are reported tomorrow. Typically it’s a snooze-fest in the markets for the 24 hours or so leading up to that report.
 
But the week’s been full of data points to give traders reason to stay awake.
 
The Reserve Bank of Australian and the Bank of Canada both announced monetary policy; RBA hiked 25 basis points, while the BOC sat on its hands.
 
ADP, the precursor to Nonfarm Payrolls, was in line with expectations of 20k job cuts.
 
The Fed’s Beige Book was released, noting modest growth, tight credit conditions, slight improvement in consumer spending, weak demand for loans, poor hiring expectations and very little inflation.
 
By raising the borrowing limit in a special account, Japan gave itself room to intervene in the forex market should they become hurt by a strengthening yen. It’s taken to be a mere gesture at this point ... rather than an imminent threat of acting to stem yen gains.
 
Malaysia surprised everyone; their central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points earlier today. They’re the first Asian central bank to make such a move. It’s been noted that inflation is not a problem ... is this a sign that recovery is here to stay?
 
And the Bank of England and European Central Bank are due up later this morning ...
 
Traders bit down on chances that the BOE will continue its quantitative easing measures. That, and concerns over the political situation and lingering debt problems, dogged the British pound earlier in the week. The BOE will almost certainly stay on hold with rates. Any negative reaction in the pound will depend upon the aggressiveness of the quantitative easing rhetoric in the BOE’s statement today.
 
Technically, GBPUSD seems due to bounce a bit higher after its plunge that began in mid-January: [Chart not available in text format.]

The European Central Bank probably won’t be doing much today either. For one, obvious concern swirling around Greece and its Eurozone “buddies.” For two, its growth numbers continue to mostly lag those of most the rest of the world. As Jack has cited recently throughout our publications, this growth dynamic will impact interest rate expectations to the advantage of the Fed rather than the ECB, to the dollar rather than the euro.
 
But that said, we may get a short reprieve in the Greece-austerity-measures fiasco with the focus turning to US jobs. Plus, the euro too looks as though it’s in need of a bit more bounce, technically, especially as consensus has so quickly built against the euro and so quickly pushed it lower: [Chart not available in text format.]
 
So, expect the kneejerk price spikes in the few minutes following the central banks’ announcements today. Perhaps will see some upside bias for EURUSD and GBPUSD in the wake of the reports; and as usual, don’t expect too much excitement until Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow.
 
John Ross Crooks III
www.blackswantrading.com
 
Currencies are another asset class …
 
David Newman here…Investing versus trading
 
How many times have you seen pictures of people sitting on the beach with their laptop in hand in those “Trade Forex Commission Free” advertisements? Open a FX account, quit your real job, sit on the beach and get rich is the implicit message. It’s ridiculous! But unfortunately that is what sells. 
 
It doesn’t have to be that way. You don’t have to buy into the hype…and you don’t have to take that much risk in order to get involved in currencies. Trading can be profitable; but it requires extreme focus and discipline. There is another way if you want to “invest” in currencies.
 
Investing in currencies for the long haul means using currencies as another asset class in your portfolio. An asset class that will stand along stocks and bonds and hopefully provide some much needed diversification. 
 
There are plenty of low leveraged long-term investment choices available to you so you can make real money in currencies. They are called Currency Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). 
 
An ETF is a simple straightforward currency product that you can buy and sell in your standard equity brokerage account. It’s the same as buying any other fund traded on the exchange. We offer recommendations on Currency ETFs in our month Currency Investor newsletter. We don’t recommend trading them; we do recommend investing in them using a long-term buy and hold strategy. 
 
To sum it up: Our monthly Currency Investor newsletter is geared toward newcomers and experienced investors who are looking for a conservative approach to the foreign exchange market, and learning more about how the global economy works.
 
In plain language we deliver global macroeconomic analysis and actionable ideas geared toward exchange rate fluctuations.
 
Our analysis is comprehensible and our recommendations consist of ETFs, as I said, so don’t get turned off by buzz words like “exchange rates” or “foreign exchange” – this investing strategy is as easy to implement as buying and selling stocks.
 
Plus, at $39 per year it’s a deal you’d be hard-pressed to find anywhere else.
 
Thorough global analysis plus complete investment guidance ... and all for only $39 per year? You can become a Member of our Currency Investor service at our home page via credit card or PayPal.
 
Thank you.
 
All the best,
 
David Newman
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital
dnewman@blackswantrading.com 
Phone: 866-846-2672 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

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