The U.S. Dollar is up against most major currencies as
investors have shifted back toward risk aversion. Demand for lower risk is
helping to boost the Japanese Yen while oversold conditions are helping the British
This morning the European Central Bank is expected to
announce that interest rates will remain at 1.0%.Concerns over sovereign debt issues in the
Euro Zone mean that fiscal austerity will be the new buzz phrase as almost
every member of the European Union will be asked to slash their budgets
especially the so-called PIIGS - Portugal,
Ireland, Italy, Greece
and Spain.This is likely to keep the pressure on the
Euro in the long-run as it indicates a deflationary scenario driven by lower
Investors are also monitoring todayâ€™s Greek bond issuance.
Traders are most interested in how well this 10 year bond auction is being
received. Early indications are showing that this auction may be
oversubscribed. This is potentially bullish for the Euro in the short-run.
Short-term, the EUR USD has upside potential because of the
massive amount of shorts in the market still betting on its demise. If the
majority of the over 50,000 short positions are covered, then expect a strong
short-covering rally to drive this market to a key 50% price level at 1.4009
over the near-term.
The GBP USD is trading a little better this morning. Bearish
conditions have eased since the sharp break earlier in the week. Look for the
Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at todayâ€™s meeting. Investors
will be looking for language outlining a possible extension or expansion of its
current quantitative easing program.If
the BoE hints at flooding the market with more cash, then look for fresh
downside pressure to develop.
The return of risk aversion is helping to pressure the USD
JPY. Additional pressure is expected to come from Japanese investor
repatriation ahead of the close of the fiscal year. Currently the USD JPY is
testing a .618 retracement level at 88.24. Bearish traders seem reluctant to
press the market at this area which could mean a possible intra-day
short-covering rally may take place before the selling is resumed. A weak stock
market could lead to an acceleration to the downside however.
The mixed to lower Euro is helping to buoy the USD CHF this
morning. Currently this pair is trading inside of yesterdayâ€™s range. A rally in
the Euro will send this pair lower and set it on course for a test of a major
50% downside target at 1.0513. Fresh Euro selling pressure will increase the
chances of a Swiss National Bank intervention which will help rally the USD
The USD CAD is under pressure this morning. Expectations of
a hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada before the Fed, has been the catalyst
driving this market lower this week. Watch for a possible â€śverbal interventionâ€ť
by the Bank of Canada as this pair approaches the January bottom at 1.0224. The
BoC is concerned that a rapid rise in its currency will hurt Canadian exports.
The return of risk aversion is helping to pressure the AUD
USD and NZD USD. Traders seem concerned that the global economic recovery may
be slowing which is helping to pressure demand for higher yielding assets.
Pacific Rim traders are worried that Chinaâ€™s
attempt to cool its economy will lead to less demand for raw materials and
other exports for Australia
and New Zealand.
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