Stocks Trading Mixed Ahead of Weekly Jobless Claims
equity markets are trading flat to lower ahead of this morningâ€™s weekly jobless
claims report. In addition, investors seem to be taking a non-committal
approach in front of tomorrowâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The Forex
markets indicate that investor sentiment is shifting back toward risk aversion
which could pressure equity markets today. A downside break could be led by the
Dow and NASDAQ which posted closing price reversal tops yesterday.
Demand for lower yielding assets is helping to give June
Treasury Bonds and June Treasury Notes a slight lift this morning. A rapid
acceleration to the downside in the equity market could lead to more upside
pressure in the Treasuries. The key area to watch in the T-Bonds is 117â€™23.
Regaining this area will be a sign of strength.
The stronger Dollar is helping to keep April Gold on the
defensive. Currently this market is trading lower while sitting on a major 50%
level at $1136.75.Bullish traders will
try to create support at this price in order to set up another rally to perhaps
$1158.52. Falling below $1135.75 could lead to a short-term profit-taking
break. With conditions in Greece
easing, look for the Dollar to have the biggest influence on Gold.
The bullish move in June Crude Oil is showing signs of
easing this morning. The stronger Dollar and weaker Euro is leading to greater
demand for lower risk assets which is pressuring commodities. Yesterdayâ€™s
inventory report was bearish because of the increase in supply.This means that a rally in the Dollar will
likely lead to a sell-off in crude oil.
This morning the European Central Bank is expected to
announce that interest rates will remain at 1.0%.Concerns over sovereign debt issues in the
Euro Zone mean that fiscal austerity will be the new buzz phrase as almost
every member of the European Union will be asked to slash their budgets
especially the so-called PIIGS - Portugal,
Ireland, Italy, Greece
and Spain.This is likely to keep the pressure on the Euro
in the long-run as it indicates a deflationary scenario driven by lower
Investors are also monitoring todayâ€™s Greek bond issuance.
Traders are most interested in how well this 10 year bond auction is being
received. Early indications are showing that this auction may be
oversubscribed. This is potentially bullish for the Euro in the short-run.
Short-term, the March Euro has upside potential because of
the massive amount of shorts in the market still betting on its demise. If the
majority of the over 50,000 short positions are covered, then expect a strong
short-covering rally to drive this market to a key 50% price level at 1.4009
over the near-term.
The March British Pound is trading a little better this
morning. Bearish conditions have eased since the sharp break earlier in the
week. Look for the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at todayâ€™s
meeting. Investors will be looking for language outlining a possible extension
or expansion of its current quantitative easing program.If the BoE hints at flooding the market with
more cash, then look for fresh downside pressure to develop.
The return of risk aversion is helping to underpin the March
Japanese Yen. Additional support is expected to come from Japanese investor
repatriation ahead of the close of the fiscal year. Currently the Japanese Yen
is testing a .618 retracement level at 1.1356. Bullish traders seem reluctant
to press the market at this area which could mean a possible intra-day break
may take place before the buying is resumed. A weak stock market could lead to
an acceleration to the upside however.
The mixed to lower Euro is helping to pressure the March
Swiss Franc this morning. Currently this contract is trading inside of
yesterdayâ€™s range. A rally in the Euro will send this contract higher and set
it on course for a test of a major 50% upside target at .9526. Fresh Euro
selling activity will increase the chances of a Swiss National Bank
intervention which will help pressure the Swiss Franc.
The March Canadian Dollar is trading better this morning
once again. Expectations of a hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada
before the Fed, has been the catalyst driving this market lower this week.
Watch for a possible â€śverbal interventionâ€ť by the Bank of Canada as this pair
approaches the January top at .9780. The BoC is concerned that a rapid rise in
its currency will hurt Canadian exports.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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