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Friday March 5, 2010 - 11:08:47 GMT
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European market Update: Markets consolidate ahead of US payroll data

Friday, March 05, 2010 5:53:46 AM

 European market Update: Markets consolidate ahead of US payroll data

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (TT) Taiwan Feb CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.1%e; WPI Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.7% prior
- (SP) Spain Jan Industrial Output NSA Y/Y; -4.6% v -1.5% prior; Output WDA Y/Y: -2.5% v -0.5%e
- (DE) Denmark Jan Industrial Production M/M: 3.7% v -1.8% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -6.8% v 1.8% prior
- (SW) Sweden Feb Budget Balance (SEK) 43.9B v 19.8B prior
- (AS) Austria Feb Wholesale Price M/M: 0.4% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Jan Industrial Product Manufacturing M/M: -0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.3%e
- (NO) Norway Jan Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -3.1% v -6.4% prior
- (IC) Iceland Q4 GDP Q/Q: 3.3% v -7.2% prior; Y/Y: -9.1% v -8.1% prior
- (IC) Iceland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 13.9B v 6.5B prior
- (UK) Feb PPI Input M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 7.8%e
- (UK) PPI Output M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.0%e
- (UK) PPI Output Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.8%e
- (MA) Malaysia Jan Trade Balance (MYR): 12.9B v 10.2Be v 12.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: 37% v 31.3%e; Imports Y/Y: 31.0% 32.0%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: European stocks were modestly higher Friday ahead of key U.S. employment data, with gains in the basic resources and banking sector lending support. US nonfarm payrolls data likely to influence the latter part of the session.

In individual equities: Salzgitter [SZG.GE] Reports prelim FY09 Prelim Pretax Loss €496.5M worse than the loss of €325M expected. The firm did beat on the top line with revenues at €7.82B compared to the €7.3B expected. It guided FY10 pretax profit of double-digit euro million range. It saw the possibility of economic improvement for most of the company
- See trends in selling prices, materials and parity in currencies could significantly affect company's performance this year ***Galapagos [GLPG.BE] Reported FY09 Net €3M above the €1M estime. Revenues were in line with prior guidance coming in at €106M. The firm guided FY10 revenues over €135M compared to analyst consensus of 137Me. The company's cash position was at €47.4M at end 2009 *** Xstrata [XTA.UK] XTA.UK: To receive $2.25B in cash from Glencore after exercise of Prodeco option *** WPP [WPP.UK] Reported FY09 pretax £662.6M below expectations of £782Me, Op profit €761M below consensus of €900Me. The revenues were just ahead at £8.7B versus £8.6B expectations ***Airbus unit of Eads [EAD.FR reported the Total Jan-Feb Orders at 11 aircraft, deliveries was 67. It showed no orders in Feb period and delivered 38 aircraft. The unit stated that the airircraft markets were recovering and maintained view of FY10 sales of 250 aircraft and deliveries of 500 planes

- Speakers China PBoC Vice Gov Su Ning stated that pressure for Yuan currency appreciation was rising as economic crisis ends. China would use main policy tools to achieve 2010 CPI target of 3% including liquidity controls. The member added thatChina needed more time to decide whether to raise interest rates and could meet 2010 inflation target if economic growth was not too fast. Overall China can handle all of its own affairs very well. Lastly the CNY7.5T of loans would be sufficient to increase economic growth. *** India PM Singh: Confident of achieving FY11 GDP growth above 8%; Govt to address rising food prices ***ECB's Draghi: Greece austerity measures are serious enough to convince both markets and government officials *** EU's Juncker stressed that there was no reason to expect German taxpayers to bail out Greece but would not rule out possibility that Greece would require assistance from its EU members. He reiterated the view that Greece would not be left on its own and that the country would get its own house in order. *** Germany Econ Min Bruederle reiterated that German govt had no intention of offering financial aid to Greece and stressed that the Greek PM has not asked for money *** Greek Fin Min Papaconstantinou commented that his country would not need any additional austerity measures if current package was fully implemented. He added that Greece was fighting against time and the austerity package was a matter of 'national survival' ***Bank of Spain issued its Monthly Bulletin and noted that it saw mixed economic signals within the Spanish economy. It noted that the ECB has maintained a favorable liquidity condition and that the ECB interest rate of 1% was appropriate ***

- Currencies: Price action was largely contained ahead of the US non-farm payroll report. The EUR/USD continued to trade within its one-week range of 1.3430 to 1.3730. The JPY was mildly softer after an earlier press report that the BOJ was examining a further easing of its ultra-loose monetary policy and may decide on such a move this month

- Fixed Income: Yields are range bound ahead of key US nonfarm payolls data, with markets also awaiting further details from the meeting between Greek PM and German Chancellor Merkel. Various reports are now pointing to a German debt guarantee of Greek debt as the most acceptable to both sides - and hence plausible - outcome, legal issues aside. The German debt agency announced plans to issue a new 10y inflation lined Bund next week. The debt chief also commented that the agency could adjust Q2 bond issuance if necessary but that no new signs had emerged to impact its current outlook.

- In the Papers: NY Times: Discusses growing concerns over a real estate bubble in China. Article implies that almost everyone agrees China is in the middle of a spectacular real estate boom. The question is whether it is in the middle of a rapidly growing real estate bubble. In Chinas case, a bursting bubble could affect much of the world. China is the fastest-growing large economy and, so far, a main engine pulling the world out of recession. Article noted that Beijing is clearly concerned. Authorities have recently moved to rein in the easy credit that has helped finance Chinas hyper-development, including making it more difficult for home buyers to take out a second mortgage. Article noted that in 2009 a record $560B of residential property was sold in China, an increase of 80% from the year before, according to government statistics and noted that with prices soaring, developers are scrambling to build more

***Notes:
- Market awaits the US payroll data and should have lots of weather related caveats
- China PM Wen:. Pledges crack down on property speculation.
- China PBoC Su Ning: Feels global pressure to allow CNY to appreciate
- EU's Juncker: Can not rule out that Greece would not need any help from EU members
- GIC and Qatar committed to underwrite significant portion of Prudential rights issue.

***Looking Ahead:
- 6;30 (CL) Chile Jan Economic Activity Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.9% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Feb IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.9%e v 4.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Feb Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: -68Ke v -20K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -15Ke v 11K prior. est -150K to +30K. man est -45K to +15K
- 8:30 (US) Feb Unemployment Rate: 9.8%e v 9.7% priorest 9.5% to 10.1%
- 8:30 (US) Feb Avg Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 33.7e v 33.9 prior
- 9:00 EU Juncker
- 9:30 (EU) EU Foreign Ministers
- 10:00 TSY Keueger press conferences on jobs report
- 11:00 (GR) Germany's Merkel/Greece PM Papandreou
- 11:00 (HU) Feb Budget Balance YTD: No est v 31.3B prior
- 15:00 (US) Jan Consumer Credit: -$4.5Be v -$1.7B prior
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.1% prior

 

 

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