Stocks Trading Mixed Ahead of Weekly Jobless Claims
equity markets are trading higher ahead of this morningâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm
Payrolls Report. Appetite for risk is up overnight which could spillover to the
markets if the jobs number shows that the economy is improving.
June Treasury Bonds are trading slightly lower. Holding
117â€™23 is the key to sustaining the rally in this market. The next upside
target is 118â€™17.A break back under
117â€™23 could trigger a sharp break to 116â€™04. Todayâ€™s jobs report will move
this market. If fewer than 50,000 jobs are lost then look for T-Bonds to break.
A greater than expected loss will be bullish for T-Bonds.
The direction of April Gold and June Crude Oil will be
dictated by the movement of the Dollar. A weaker Dollar should increase demand
for riskier assets which will drive up gold and crude oil.
The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed overnight ahead of this
morningâ€™s Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Demand for risky assets is up overnight
putting pressure on lower yielding currencies. Traders are looking for a loss
of about 50,000 jobs. This guess is higher than last monthâ€™s actual loss of
20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 9.7% to 9.8%. A
greater than expected jobs loss is likely to drive traders into the Dollar as
this would indicate that the economy is weakening. Traders would most likely
react by dumping higher risk assets in favor of lower yielding currencies.
The March Euro is trading flat after the European Central
Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday. There are still some concerns
about Greeceâ€™s ability to
shore up its budget deficit, but recently announced budget cuts and tax hikes
have helped to increase the chance that aid will be coming soon from Germany and France. In addition, if a
resolution canâ€™t be reached then look for Greece to turn toward the
International Monetary Fund for help.
In addition to keeping interest rates low, the ECB will
continue to reduce stimulus measures. ECB President Trichet downplayed the move
by saying that it â€śshouldnâ€™t be interpreted as a change in our monetary
policyâ€ť.The central bank also lowered
its inflation forecast prompting Trichet to say that he sees an â€śunevenâ€ť
Bearish Euro traders expect the sovereign debt situation in
the Euro Region to continue to pressure the currency. With many Euro nations
likely to make budget cuts, government spending is expected to be reduced while
interest rates remain low. This should keep the pressure on the Euro because
other major players such as Canada
and the U.S.
are likely to begin raising rates.
The March British Pound is trading slightly better. This
market has stabilized after a sharp break earlier in the week. Oversold
conditions have been the driving force behind the recent strength. The
fundamentals remain bearish with the U.K. facing a huge budget deficit,
a weak economy and political uncertainty. A British Pound rally will likely
stall near 1.5297 over the near-term.
The March Japanese Yen is trading lower after yesterdayâ€™s
closing price reversal top was confirmed by weaker overnight action. Falling
below a key 50% level at 1.1227 will be the key to sustaining the developing
break. Downside momentum could take this market to 1.1099 over the near-term.
Traders are selling the Japanese Yen on speculation that the
Bank of Japan will increase credit easing measures. The government wants to see
more credit pumped into the economy to ease the threat of deflation. The weaker
Yen is should make it more attractive as a funding currency.
The March Canadian Dollar is trading slightly lower after
almost reversing to the downside on Thursday. Overbought conditions and the
possibility of a verbal intervention by the Bank of Canada are helping to
pressure the Canadian Dollar. The charts indicate there is room to the downside
with .9550 the next likely target.
The March Swiss Franc could rally today if the Euro
strengthens. Strength developed earlier this week after a rally in the Euro
diminished the chances of another intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The
charts indicate the trend has turned higher, setting up a possible 50%
correction to .9526 over the near-term. If todayâ€™s U.S. employment reports is worse
than expected, then look for pressure on the Euro to spillover to the Swiss
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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