Monday March 8, 2010 - 03:46:29 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 08-Mar-2010 - 0335 GMT
Last week was good for the US Equities. The Dow (10566.20) was up about 2.33% and the Nasdaq (2326.35) was up 3.94%. Return of Large Corporate buyouts, easing concerns over the Greek Economy and some good data releases were the basic reasons for the upmove. The Dow is at a significant Resistance level and a break above this may take it towards 11000 in the days ahead.
The Asian Equities have opened higher today. The Nikkei (10551.30) is up 1.76% and is at a significant Resistance level which we have been mentioning for some days now, a strong break above this may take it towards 11000 in the days ahead. The Shanghai (3050.287) is up 0.63% and has a strong Resistance near 3100-25 region, which may be tested in the days ahead. The Sensex (16994.49) was up about 3.44% last week and may rise towards 17500 in the next few days.
Crude (81.95) has risen sharply breaking above the Resistance at 81 following the US NFP data release of Friday which showed less than expected job cuts in February and signals from China to maintain its stimulus measures. If it continues to trade above 81, we might see further rise towards 84 in the coming days. Note that Crude has been broadly ranged between 68-84 over the last few months.
Gold (1135.10) is continuing to trade below 1140 and is finding itself very difficult see a strong break above 1140 although the Dollar has weakend over the last couple of days. A strong break above 1140 might see 1150-60 in the coming days. On the downside immediate Support is seen at 1120.
Friday's strong rise in Dollar-Yen (90.36) is continuing today and is fuelling a rise in other currencies as well. The Australian Dollar (0.9112) has broken past the 100-day MA which had been holding it down for the last few weeks. The Aussie looks very bullish over this week and the next. Although the Euro (1.3685) has also moved up well in Asia today, it may find Resistance between current levels and 1.3720 for the day. The Euro-Yen Cross (123.72) has risen well and may test a crucial Resistance at 124.00-50 for the week.
Dollar-Swiss (1.0689) has dipped alongwith the rally in the Euro. Support seen at 1.0635 for today. The Pound (1.5180) is continuing to rise from last Monday's low near 1.4785 and could well rise another 100 points over today-tomorrow, with buying possible on dips. Overall, the picture looks bullish for the Pound.
The Asian currencies have strengthened slightly today. Korean Won (1133.70) has strengthened from Friday's levels near 1140. The Sing Dollar which is trading near 1.3995 has been ranged for the last few days, but has chances of strengthening towards 1.3925. Dollar-Rupee NDFs are being quoted near 45.52/57, as compared to Friday's close near 45.61.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields has risen 5 bps and 9 bps to quote at 0.91% and 3.70% respectively.
No major data release today.
Feb US NFP
...Actual -36K...Previous -20K
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