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Monday March 8, 2010 - 10:36:32 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 08/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 8,
GBP - Trade Balance
European traders anticipate the publication of the
Trade Balance index. The index measures the difference in worth between exported
and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of a
country's balance of payments. Export data can give reflection on the UK growth.
Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy
the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable
affect on the GBP. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a reading of
The Euro is
approaching 1.37 as these words are written, and it has topped Fibonacci 76.4%
for the short term (1.3686) with very few points, before retreating marginally
to 1.3667. We have attached a chart with a suggested wave count, in which there
is a set of 5 clear waves, with all the Elliott rules respected within this set.
Thus, as long as the Euro is below the point which started this set, we assure
the downtrend is in control, and we assume that the rise from 1.3529 on Friday
which is approaching 1.37 now, is only a corrective one. The resistance 1.3686
will be resistance of the day. If this level is broken, the Euro will jump to
.3769 & may be 1.3838 as well. If the price starts to go above 1.37, it is
important to keep an eye on 1.3734, because this top has a lot of â€śElliottâ€ť
importance (since below it: downtrend, and above it: uptrend). As for the
support it is at 1.3652, breaking it would target 1.3590, and Fridayâ€™s bottom
1.3529 which may be important.
â€˘ 1.3652: Fibonacci
38.2% for the short term.
â€˘ 1.3590: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3529: Fridayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 1.3686: Fibonacci 76.4% for
the drop from 1.3734.
â€˘ 1.3769: the top of the falling channel on the hourly
charts, and a very important resistance for the short term & the medium
â€˘ 1.3838: Feb 9th
Dollar-Yen broke the
resistance specified in Fridayâ€™s report 89.46, and moved exactly as expected,
targeting Fibonacci levels, and reaching both suggested targets 90.22 &
90.67 successfully & accurately (todayâ€™s high so far is 90.66. Fibonacci
resistance 90.60 will be the most important for today, especially after the
price has reached it & came back down to the Asian session low. The next few
hours will be a match between a very sharp rising correction & a Fibonacci
retracement level determined to stop it. If this resistance is broken, the
correction will go on and will target 91.18 & the important
â€˘ 90.29: hourly support.
â€˘ 89.69: Fibonacci
38.2% for the short term.
â€˘ 89.09: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€˘ 90.60: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
â€˘ 91.18: hourly resistance.
â€˘ 91.67: previous hourly
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
information on US dollar index see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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