equity markets are expected to open better this morning due to a pick-up in
demand for higher yielding assets. Investors are also feeling more confident in
the long side following last Fridayâ€™s better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls
Report. The lack of fresh major economic news until at least Thursday could
keep the indices on course for further upside action. The daily March E-mini
S&P 500 chart indicates the possibility of a rally to 1156.00 by March 12th.
June Treasury Bonds are expected to be under pressure today.
Traders are still adjusting positions following last Fridayâ€™s improved jobs
news. Investors are factoring in the prospect of an interest rate hike by the
Fed before the end of the year. The daily chart suggests that a move to 116â€™04
is likely. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level.
Despite the weaker Dollar, April Gold is trading lower. This
market is having trouble attracting buyers at a 50% level at $1136.75.
Liquidation by traders hoping for the demise of the Euro may be holding back
gains. Should upside momentum increase, look for a short-term rally to
June Crude Oil continues to climb. The weaker Dollar and the
higher Euro are the driving forces behind this rally. The supply and demand
picture remains suspect.
The U.S. Dollar is under pressure overnight against most
major currencies except the Japanese Yen. Trading has been light and less
volatile than last weekâ€™s trading conditions. Shortly before the New York session
opening, the Dollar is mounting a slight comeback and trading off its lows
against a few of its majors.
The lack of event risk is likely to make the movement of the
Dollar the catalyst and market direction driver this week. The first major report
is Thursdayâ€™s Weekly Jobless Claims, followed by Fridayâ€™s Retail Sales Report.
Risk appetite was up overnight, driven by strong demand from
Asia, favoring riskier, higher yielding
currencies. This is helping to drive up the March Australian Dollar and March
New Zealand Dollar while putting the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.
The primary driver of the Forex markets overnight is
speculation that European nations would rescue Greece financially if needed.
Traders are reacting positively to comments from French President Nicholas.
Over the weekend he said that the Euro Region nations are â€śreadyâ€ť to help Greece.
He also added however, â€śif it were necessaryâ€ť. These comments drove the March
Euro higher as they reduced the perceived risk of debt defaults throughout Europe. His comments also seemed to backup claims
reported by the Wall Street Journal over a week ago that both France and Germany stand ready to provide up
to $41 billion in bailout money provided the Greek government stay on course to
reduce its debt load.
Last week, the Euro turned its trend to up on the daily
chart after Greece
agreed to make massive budget cuts. This helped to instill a little confidence
in the countryâ€™s finances. In addition, a Greek 10-year bond auction went off
without a hitch, further indicating renewed confidence in Greeceâ€™s ability to recover from
its financial crisis.
The combination of fiscally responsible measures and the
technical change in trend is an indication that investors are getting
comfortable that Greeceâ€™s
problems are not going to spill over into other sovereign nations such as Portugal or Spain.
Adding further to speculation that the tide may be turning
up in the Euro is the news that net shorts dropped the week-ending March 2nd in
the CFTCâ€™s Commitment of Traders Report. This weekâ€™s net short figure showed a
drop to 66,770 open positions versus 71,623 from late February.There are still a tremendous amount of shorts
in the market, so this change most likely reflects light position paring.
Should the major hedge funds all decide to head for the exits at the same time,
look for a huge short-covering rally.
Both the March Swiss Franc and the New Zealand Dollar are
higher. The Swiss Franc is trading higher because the stronger Euro reduces the
possibility of a Swiss National Bank intervention. In addition, the SNB meets
later this week on March 11th. Short-covering due to oversold conditions are
helping to drive the New Zealand Dollar higher. On March 10th, the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand
meets to discuss monetary policy. It is expected to leave interest rates
unchanged due to the weak economy.
The March Canadian Dollar is rising as global investor
demand is picking up for the Canadian Dollar. Traders have been encouraged to buy
the Canadian Dollar due to the relative safety of the Canadian banking system.
In addition, last week it was reported that Canadian GDP rose more than
expected. The chart indicates that .9777 is the next upside target. This would
put the market at a price which triggered a Bank of Canada verbal intervention
Finally, the March British Pound has been see-sawing
overnight. It is possible that the current short-covering rally could move up
into a 50% level at 1.5297 before new selling pressure begins. The British
Pound continues to remain weak because of the weak U.K. economy, the widening budget
deficit, a dovish monetary policy and political uncertainty.
Forex Trading News
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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