User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday March 7, 2005 - 22:21:11 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Warren Buffett Warns Of Continual Dollar Depreciation

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 03-07-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Warren Buffett Warns Of Continual Dollar Depreciation
· Euro Weakens On Contracting Consumer Spending
· Weak Capital Spending Data Weighs On Japanese Yen

EURUSD

The euro has given up some of Friday’s spectacular gains after disappointing retail sales data. Not only has sales for the Eurozone contracted for the second consecutive month according to the Retail Trade PMI survey, it has also experienced the largest decline in nine months. Rising unemployment and high oil prices continue to be at fault. With oil hitting another 4 month high and some analysts forecasting prices to reach $60 per barrel, the situation is only expected to worsen. Yet, as we have previously warned, the Eurozone will not be the only ones affected by the rise in oil prices. Oil has kept the Japanese yen from responding to the stronger economic data that we have seen over the past two weeks. It will also pinch the wallets of US consumers who are in no way immune to the higher prices at the pump. Fed speak are the only items of interest on the US calendar tomorrow. Poole and Bernanke who are both at opposite sides of the dove-hawk spectrum are scheduled to speak. Though neither are expected to deter from the Fed’s measured pace of tightening mantra, traders should pay particular attention to Bernanke’s comments about the economic outlook since he is predicted to be the top contender for Greenspan’s post as Chairman of the Federal Reserve next year. With monotonous comments from Fed officials, refreshingly blunt comments from Warren Buffett holds heavier weight in the markets. After earning $1.8 billion in profits from his $21.4 billion bet against the dollar, Buffett continues to warn about possible deterioration in the US trade deficit. In fact, he devoted 2 pages of his annual report to talking about the need for increased foreign investment in order to trigger a meaningful reversal in the ballooning trade deficit. His comments come are perfect timing since we are expecting the trade balance report on Friday and the net foreign security purchases, or TIC data the following Tuesday. His fund has also increased its cash position by 19% between 2003 and 2004. Last year, Buffett talked about the need to look abroad for investment opportunities given his skeptical views of US market valuations. If other traders join the Berkshire Hathaway bandwagon, the dollar’s fate could worsen.

USDCHF

The only piece of noteworthy US data today was consumer credit, which doubled expectations in the month of January. The surprising 11% jump highlights the liberal spending habits of US consumers whose debt levels are at all-time highs. Although January tends to be a seasonably strong month for credit and charge card usage, optimism around lower oil prices are sure to have boosted the spending appetite of US consumers. The over-consumption by US consumers is one of the Fed’s gravest concerns. In boosting interest rates, they hope to increase the attractiveness of savings in the US. The great big imbalance story in the global economy that is keeping the dollar under water is that the US is the home to notorious spenders whereas Asia, namely Japan is the home of notorious savers. In a nutshell, unless US consumers learn to save more and Asian consumers learn to spend more or are tempted to do so by their respective central banks, the imbalance will continue to be a major issue. Meanwhile across the Atlantic in Switzerland, the Swiss unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Swiss fundamentals will continue to sit on the backburner until SNB President Roth speaks on the objectives for the Swiss Franc later this week.

GBPUSD

The Sterling lost ground against most of the majors today, primarily on news that retail sales had likely declined in February. Blizzards, lower consumer confidence, and fears of impending higher borrowing costs have all been blamed for the BRC report’s expected deterioration. Many traders have already factored in the fact that a decline in consumer spending weakens the argument for a rate hike, but retail sales were not the only factors to affect the pound today. On a political level, Chancellor Brown’s comments over the weekend ruled out fiscal expansion in the March budget, increasing the likelihood that little will be done to prevent a 12 billion pound tax increase over the next five years. This, too, supports a more dovish monetary policy. Lastly, the equity markets also affected today’s currency trading in an unusual way, with the UK’s BAE Systems unveiling a $4.2B acquisition of US rival United Defense Industries, and Deutsche Bourse withdrawing its bid for the London Stock Exchange. No major economic releases are expected tomorrow, so look for trading to brace for a busy day on Wednesday, in addition to Thursday’s all important rate decision and statement.

USDJPY

Weaker capital spending data has prevented the Japanese yen from extending Friday’s gains. Capital spending increased only 3.5% y/y, which paled in comparison to the market’s 10.8% y/y forecast for the fourth quarter. There is a significant amount of Japanese economic data due for release this week. Household spending and machinery orders are both expected to be strong. With contracting price action in USDJPY, our expectations for a sharp breakout scenario in USDJPY are increasing. This week’s heavy Japanese economic calendar could very well provide a catalyst for a break. Meanwhile BoJ Governor Fukui reiterated the central bank’s stance on reserve diversification, which is that they have “no intention” of diversifying reserves. His comments probably came in response to comments by the Governor of the People’s Bank of China (Zhou Xiaochuan), who said that “in managing foreign exchange reserves, our traditional principle has been that we try to have diversification in terms of currency, products and risk management.” The director of China’s State Administration for Foreign Exchange also added that although they are still contemplating whether revaluation is appropriate at his time, the country will “eventually let the currency float freely.” From the sound of it, the PboC Governor is suggesting that China may be considering reserve diversification, which if this is true, it would also be negative for the US dollar.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105