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Tuesday March 9, 2010 - 11:18:35 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 9,
Fundamental Analysis: JPY - GDP
Traders anticipate the publication of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). It is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator
for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth
rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY. Analysts predict a reading of
The slightly surpassed
1.37, but only to retreat right after. We believe that the most important thing
that happened in the past 24 hours is the Euroâ€™s inability to overcome 1.3734,
the point from which the 5 waves down started (please refer to the chart). And
as we said yesterday, as long as the price is below this level, we are closer to
a downtrend, and also, this wave count will be valid. Short term support is
provided by Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3595, and it was touched down to the point
while writing this report. If the price holds above it we can hope for a bounce,
especially if the price breaks short term resistance 1.3648. If this level is
broken, the price will start to rise strongly, and this strong rise will be able
to break 1.37, targeting 1.3755 and may be 1.3838. But as we said, we should pay
attention to the Euroâ€™s ability to break 1.3734 or not, since this hold a
special importance. If the price goes back down, and breaks 1.3595, we expect
the pair to fall to 1.3529, and at a later time to continue towards the 1.34
areas where there is 1.3459.
â€¢ 1.3595: Fibonacci 38.2%
for the short term.
â€¢ 1.3529: Fridayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 1.3459: Mar 1st
â€¢ 1.3648: the falling trend line from
yesterdayâ€™s high on intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.3755: the top of the falling channel
on the hourly charts, and a very important resistance for the short term &
the medium term.
â€¢ 1.3838: Feb 9th
Fibonacci resistance 90.66
has succeeded in reversing the short term direction, the price fell to 89.86
this morning, before barely going above 90 again. This rebound from Fibonacci
retracement level with very good accuracy is evidence that the general direction
of the short-term is down. If this turns out to be true, we will see the
Dollar-Yen breaking the nearby support 89.90, and trying to attack the Fibonacci
support 89.09 which will act as a first target for this break, and the level
that if broken, we can say that the drop from 90.66 is more than a correction.
If this level is also broken, the target would be 88.46, on the way to lower
targets. As for the resistance it is provided by the falling trend line from
this weekâ€™s high so far 90.66, which is at 90.21. If this line is broken, we
will be on the way to another weekly high, since the targets for such a break
would be 90.84 & the well known important resistance
â€¢ 89.90: intraday support.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 88.46: previous hourly
â€¢ 90.21: the falling trend line from
â€¢ 90.84: Nov 5th & 6th high.
â€¢ 91.67: previous hourly
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
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