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Wednesday March 10, 2010 - 10:55:24 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 10,
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Trade
Balance index. The
index measures the difference in worth between exported
and imported goods
(exports minus imports). This is the largest component of
balance of payments.
Export data can give reflection on the US
growth. Imports provide an
indication of domestic demand.
foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's
may have sizable affect on the USD.
A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish
for the USD. Analysts predict a reading
The Euro broke
the support 1.3595, and stopped only 7 pips below the
suggested target, and
created another bottom in the same area of last
Friday's low (1.3529). This
boring behavior, and moving back and forth in
almost the same areas in the
past days, made us wonder if we could be in a
triangle of some sort. If this
is true, the triangle limits are 1.3673 &
1.3557, but we will espouse
Fibonacci 61.8% support & resistance at 1.3566 &
1.3639 to be today's
levels. We can only hope to end this boredom with a
break of one of these
levels. If the resistance at 1.3639 is broken, we
expect the Euro to jump and
test the top of the falling channel at 1.3729.
And if this important
resistance is broken too, we will see the Euro flying
to 1.3810. On the other
hand, if the support at 1.3566 is broken, we expect
a test of the rising
trend line from 1.3442 as a first target (this line is
currently running at
1.3472), and if broken we will reach a fresh cycle low
* 1.3566: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
* 1.3472: the rising trend line from 1.3442 on the hourly charts.
1.3390: Apr 13th high.
* 1.3639: Fibonacci 61.8%
for the short term.
* 1.3729: the top of the falling channel on the hourly
charts, and a very
important resistance for the short term & the medium
* 1.3810: Feb 10th
After Fibonacci resistance
90.66 has succeeded in reversing the short term
direction, the price traded
under it for the whole past 24 hours, reaching a
low of 89.61, and drifting
away more than 100 pips from the weekly high,
which is in total agreement
with Fibonacci analysis that suggests we had a
short term direction-changing
top at 90.66.This rebound from Fibonacci
retracement level with very good
accuracy is evidence that the general
direction of the short-term is down. If
this turns out to be true, we will
see the Dollar-Yen breaking the nearby
support 89.69, and trying to attack
the Fibonacci support 89.09 which will
act as a first target for this break,
and in case this level is broken, we
can say that the drop from 90.66 is
more than a correction. If this level is
also broken, the target would be
88.46, on the way to lower targets. As for
the resistance it is provided by
short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance, at
90.26. If this line is broken, we
will be on the way to another weekly high,
since the targets for such a
break would be 90.84 & the well known
important resistance 91.67.
* 89.69: Fibonacci 50% for
the short term.
* 89.09: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
previous hourly support.
* 90.26: Fibonacci 61.8%
for the drop from this week's high.
* 90.84: Nov 5th & 6th high.
91.67: previous hourly support.
Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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