Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Trade
Balance index. The index measures the difference in worth between exported
and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of
a country's balance of payments. Export data can give reflection on the US
growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because
foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it
may have sizable affect on the USD. A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading
of -41.00B.
---
Euro Dollar
The Euro broke
the support 1.3595, and stopped only 7 pips below the suggested target, and
created another bottom in the same area of last Friday's low (1.3529). This
boring behavior, and moving back and forth in almost the same areas in the
past days, made us wonder if we could be in a triangle of some sort. If this
is true, the triangle limits are 1.3673 & 1.3557, but we will espouse
Fibonacci 61.8% support & resistance at 1.3566 & 1.3639 to be today's
levels. We can only hope to end this boredom with a break of one of these
levels. If the resistance at 1.3639 is broken, we expect the Euro to jump and
test the top of the falling channel at 1.3729. And if this important
resistance is broken too, we will see the Euro flying to 1.3810. On the other
hand, if the support at 1.3566 is broken, we expect a test of the rising
trend line from 1.3442 as a first target (this line is currently running at
1.3472), and if broken we will reach a fresh cycle low at
1.3390.
Support: * 1.3566: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
term. * 1.3472: the rising trend line from 1.3442 on the hourly charts. *
1.3390: Apr 13th high.
Resistance: * 1.3639: Fibonacci 61.8%
for the short term. * 1.3729: the top of the falling channel on the hourly
charts, and a very important resistance for the short term & the medium
term. * 1.3810: Feb 10th
high.
---
USD/JPY
After Fibonacci resistance
90.66 has succeeded in reversing the short term direction, the price traded
under it for the whole past 24 hours, reaching a low of 89.61, and drifting
away more than 100 pips from the weekly high, which is in total agreement
with Fibonacci analysis that suggests we had a short term direction-changing
top at 90.66.This rebound from Fibonacci retracement level with very good
accuracy is evidence that the general direction of the short-term is down. If
this turns out to be true, we will see the Dollar-Yen breaking the nearby
support 89.69, and trying to attack the Fibonacci support 89.09 which will
act as a first target for this break, and in case this level is broken, we
can say that the drop from 90.66 is more than a correction. If this level is
also broken, the target would be 88.46, on the way to lower targets. As for
the resistance it is provided by short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance, at
90.26. If this line is broken, we will be on the way to another weekly high,
since the targets for such a break would be 90.84 & the well known
important resistance 91.67.
Support: * 89.69: Fibonacci 50% for
the short term. * 89.09: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term. * 88.46:
previous hourly support.
Resistance: * 90.26: Fibonacci 61.8%
for the drop from this week's high. * 90.84: Nov 5th & 6th high. *
91.67: previous hourly support.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
---
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