Firmer stock indices, gold and crude oil are indicating that
trader demand for risk could be up today which could pressure the Dollar versus
After trading higher overnight, the trade-weighted Dollar
Index has turned down as it trades near its low shortly before the U.S.
opening. This may be an indication that risk sentiment is shifting toward the
The EUR USD had a rocky night but has recovered all of its
earlier loss and is now trading better. Downside pressure has eased since Greece
has agreed to implement budget cuts. Traders are also becoming more optimistic
that some sort of bailout package announcement is imminent. The ability to turn
positive after a report last night showed that German trade data came in worse
than expected is a sign that there are buyers out there. The key to driving
this market higher will be to find a way to get the massive amount of shorts
out of the market.
The British Pound is feeling more downside pressure
overnight. The absence of buyers is clearly evident as traders are approaching
the long side of the market with caution. The major concern amongst traders at
this time is whether the credit agencies will issue a downgrade of U.K.
debt. Adding to the pessimism is the weak U.K. economy, political uncertainty
and the dovish stance by the Bank of England.
The USD JPY is trading higher. Demand for higher risk assets
is pressuring the Japanese Yen. A strong surge in the equity markets today
should drive this pair sharply higher. The USD CHF is down. The firming Euro is
helping to diminish the possibility of another intervention by the Swiss
National Bank. The SNB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its
next meeting, but reiterate that it stands committed to protecting its export
industry in the face of a deterioration of the Euro Region economy.
Oversold conditions seem to be preventing the USD CAD from
breaking further despite stronger demand for gold and crude oil this morning.
This pair is rapidly approaching a key support area. Traders are approaching
the short-side with caution out of fear the Bank of Canada may try to weaken
its currency in order to prevent the expensive Loonie from doing damage to its
News that Chinese exports increased the most in three years
is helping to increase demand for the AUD USD and NZD USD. The Australian
Dollar continues to mount a strong rally after taking out key resistance
recently. The strong economy is causing traders to factor in the possibility of
another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its next meeting.
The good news out of China is also helping to boost the
New Zealand Dollar. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep
interest rates low for a prolonged period of time, traders like the Kiwi at its
current level. The overnight action has put the NZD USD in a position to turn
the main trend up on the daily chart on a move through .7078.The next 50% upside target is .7124. An
additional sign of strength is the breaking of a downtrending Gann angle
overnight. This move could help trigger additional short-covering once the New York session is
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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