Stock Continue to Rally despite Drop in Volatility
equity markets are trading firm overnight after yesterdayâ€™s surge to the
upside. Buying pressure dried up late in the session, but no damage was done to
the uptrend. Volatility is falling which is making traders appear complacent.
This could be both good and bad. On the good side, it could mean traders are
gaining confidence in the recovery which will send prices higher. On the bad
side, too much complacency leaves the markets vulnerable to a bearish surprise
or could trigger the start of a sizeable correction. At this time letâ€™s just
focus on the trend and determine what it is telling us. The main trend is up in
the March E-mini S&P 500. The swing chart indicates 1156.00 is the next
upside target by March 12th.
June Treasury Bonds are trading lower but finding support at
a 50% level at 116â€™04. If this area fails to hold, then look for a further
correction to 115â€™24. A pick-up in demand for risky assets and additional
supply concerns is putting pressure on this market.
Higher demand for risky assets and a weaker Dollar are
providing support for April Gold and June Crude Oil. Gold is recovering after a
short-term break. This market will have to take out $1145.80 in order to resume
the uptrend.June Crude Oil is sitting
on an uptrending Gann angle at 82.44. This angle will dictate the markets
Firmer stock indices, gold and crude oil are indicating that
trader demand for risk could be up today which could pressure the Dollar versus
After trading higher overnight, the trade-weighted Dollar
Index has turned down as it trades near its low shortly before the U.S.
opening. This may be an indication that risk sentiment is shifting toward the
The March Euro had a rocky night but has recovered all of
its earlier loss and is now trading better. Downside pressure has eased since Greece
has agreed to implement budget cuts. Traders are also becoming more optimistic
that some sort of bailout package announcement is imminent. The ability to turn
positive after a report last night showed that German trade data came in worse
than expected is a sign that there are buyers out there. The key to driving
this market higher will be to find a way to get the massive amount of shorts
out of the market.
The March British Pound is feeling more downside pressure
overnight. The absence of buyers is clearly evident as traders are approaching
the long side of the market with caution. The major concern amongst traders at
this time is whether the credit agencies will issue a downgrade of U.K.
debt. Adding to the pessimism is the weak U.K. economy, political uncertainty
and the dovish stance by the Bank of England.
The March Japanese Yen is trading lower because of demand
for higher risk assets. A strong surge in the equity markets today should drive
this market sharply lower. The March Swiss Franc is up. The firming Euro is
helping to diminish the possibility of another intervention by the Swiss
National Bank. The SNB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its
next meeting, but reiterate that it stands committed to protecting its export
industry in the face of a deterioration of the Euro Region economy.
Overbought conditions seem to be preventing the March
Canadian Dollar from rallying further despite stronger demand for gold and
crude oil this morning. This pair is rapidly approaching a key resistance area.
Traders are approaching the long-side with caution out of fear the Bank of
Canada may try to weaken its currency in order to prevent the expensive Loonie
from doing damage to its export market.
News that Chinese exports increased the most in three years
is helping to increase demand for the March Australian Dollar and March New
Zealand Dollar. The Australian Dollar continues to mount a strong rally after
taking out key resistance recently. The strong economy is causing traders to
factor in the possibility of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia
at its next meeting.
The good news out of China is also helping to boost the
New Zealand Dollar. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep
interest rates low for a prolonged period of time, traders like the Kiwi at its
current level. The overnight action has put the March New Zealand Dollar in a position
to turn the main trend up on the daily chart on a move through .7078.The next 50% upside target is .7124. An
additional sign of strength is the breaking of a downtrending Gann angle
overnight. This move could help trigger additional short-covering once the New York session is
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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