U.S. Dollar Mixed at the Close; Euro Finishes Higher
The U.S. Dollar was mixed in light trading at the close in
an unusual day as the normal correlations between the Dollar, gold and equities
at times were not working. The lack of major U.S. economic reports this week is
still influencing the trade although this will change with Thursdayâ€™s Weekly
Initial Jobs Claims Report.
Early in the session it was clear that traders were looking
for risk as the stock indices rose with the March E-mini S&P 500 reaching
the high for the year at 1148.00. Strong demand for risk helped to drive up the
asset sensitive AUD USD, NZD USD and USD CAD.At the same time, selling pressure was on the lower-yielding Japanese
The easing of financial tensions in Greece may have helped to give the EUR USD a
boost along with better manufacturing news from Italy
These events offset a weak exports report from Germany.Trading has been light and choppy this week
and is expected to remain this way until enough buying power can come in to
pressure the short hedge funds out of the market. The Euro has been building a
short-term base since last week when it bottomed at 1.3440 and topped out at
1.3735. The longer it takes to build this base, the stronger the rally will be
once it begins to breakout to the upside.
The GBP USD traded weaker, driven lower behind the poor
fundamentals.Traders are most concerned
at this time about the possibility of a credit rating downgrade by one or more
of the credit agencies. Worries over the economic recovery, political
uncertainty and the Bank of Englandâ€™s soft monetary policy should continue to
pressure this currency.Traders defended
the recent bottom at 1.4780, but at this time it doesnâ€™t look like the main
downtrend will be threatened.
The USD JPY was up sharply because of greater demand for
higher risk assets. Overnight the Yen felt downside pressure after China announced
that both exports and imports grew at a higher-than-expected rate. The
short-term picture suggests that a test of a 50% level at 90.95 is likely. A
breakout over this price could trigger a further rally to 91.62.
The rising Euro helped to pressure the USD CHF. Traders are
looking for the Swiss National Bank to announce on Thursday that interest rates
will remain low while offering a more hawkish commentary. The SNB is most
concerned about the impact of the falling Euro on its export market which
accounts for 50% of the countryâ€™s economy. Losses in the USD CHF may have been
limited by an intervention by the SNB earlier in the day. The charts indicate
that the main trend is still down with the next major downside target set at
Falling gold prices and rising crude oil helped to limit the
movement in the USD CAD. The Canadian Dollar started out stronger because of
higher equity and commodity markets, but it could not hold its gains after gold
stock indices began their sell-off.The
USD CAD began to mount an intraday turnaround after a slight break of the January
low at 1.0224. Oversold conditions and worries that the Bank of Canada may
issue a verbal intervention kept shorts from pressing this market further.
The AUD USD gave back all of its earlier gains as U.S. stock
market volatility sent investors out of higher risk assets and into safer
plays. The weak close suggests that there may be a follow-through break on
Thursday, Look for a possible pullback to .9042 before the uptrend resumes.
The NZD USD drifted off its high after demand for risk dried
up. The weak close suggests further downside pressure on Thursday is likely.
Tomorrow, investors are looking for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to
keep interest rates low while suggesting they are not likely to rise until the
economy shows a sustained recovery.
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