equity markets finished higher after showing the first sign of volatility in
several weeks. After a strong early session rally, selling pressure hit the
market after the March E-mini S&P 500 failed to attract buyers after
reaching its high for the year at 1148.00. The strong comeback rally and the
failure to post a closing price reversal top indicates there may be enough
upside momentum to drive this market through the January top until it balances
price and time at 1156.00 on March 12th.
June Treasury Bonds traded lower after breaking through a
key 50% level at 115â€™04. The subsequent follow-through weakness drove the
market down to 115â€™27 which came close to testing the .618 retracement level at
115â€™24. Todayâ€™s T-Bond auction went off without a hitch and demand was strong.
A weaker stock market will most likely drive up the bonds. A stock market rally
should trigger further weakness.
Higher demand for risky assets and a weaker Dollar should
have given April Gold a boost on Thursday, but this did not take place as the normal
correlation relationship between gold and the Dollar did not work on Thursday.
Downside momentum is building which could drive this market into the early
March low at $1088.50.
June Crude Oil surged to a new high for the month after this
weekâ€™s API report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. crude
supplies and a big drop in gasoline supplies. Crude Oil will back off of its
high if demand drops for higher yielding assets.
The U.S. Dollar was mixed in light trading at the close in
an unusual day as the normal correlations between the Dollar, gold and equities
at times were not working. The lack of major U.S. economic reports this week is
still influencing the trade although this will change with Thursdayâ€™s Weekly
Initial Jobs Claims Report.
Early in the session it was clear that traders were looking
for risk as the stock indices rose with the March E-mini S&P 500 reaching
the high for the year at 1148.00. Strong demand for risk helped to drive up the
asset sensitive Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar.At the same time, selling pressure was on the
lower-yielding Japanese Yen.
The easing of financial tensions in Greece may have helped to give the March Euro a
boost along with better manufacturing news from Italy
These events offset a weak exports report from Germany.Trading has been light and choppy this week
and is expected to remain this way until enough buying power can come in to
pressure the short hedge funds out of the market. The Euro has been building a
short-term base since last week when it bottomed at 1.3440 and topped out at
1.3735. The longer it takes to build this base, the stronger the rally will be
once it begins to breakout to the upside.
The March British Pound traded weaker, driven lower behind
the poor fundamentals.Traders are most
concerned at this time about the possibility of a credit rating downgrade by
one or more of the credit agencies. Worries over the economic recovery,
political uncertainty and the Bank of Englandâ€™s soft monetary policy should
continue to pressure this currency.Traders defended the recent bottom at 1.4780, but at this time it
doesnâ€™t look like the main downtrend will be threatened.
The March Japanese Yen was down sharply because of greater
demand for higher risk assets. Overnight the Yen felt downside pressure after China
announced that both exports and imports grew at a higher-than-expected rate.
The short-term picture suggests that a test of a 50% level at 1.1020 is likely.
A breakdown under this price could trigger a further decline to 1.0941.
The rising Euro helped to support the March Swiss Franc.
Traders are looking for the Swiss National Bank to announce on Thursday that
interest rates will remain low while offering a more hawkish commentary. The
SNB is most concerned about the impact of the falling Euro on its export market
which accounts for 50% of the countryâ€™s economy. Gains in the Swiss Franc may
have been limited by an intervention by the SNB earlier in the day. The charts
indicate that the main trend is still up with the next major upside target set
Falling gold prices and rising crude oil helped to limit the
movement in the March Canadian Dollar. This market started out stronger because
of higher equity and commodity markets, but it could not hold its gains after
gold and U.S.
stock indices began their sell-off.The
Loonie began to mount an intraday turnaround after a slight break of the
January high at .9777 failed to attract fresh buying. Overbought conditions and
worries that the Bank of Canada may issue a verbal intervention kept longs from
pressing this market further.
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