Thursday March 11, 2010 - 04:52:08 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-Mar-2010 - 0340 GMT
The US Equities closed higher after a volatile session yesterday. The Dow (10567.33) closed flat while the Nasdaq (2358.95) closed up 0.78%. The Dow is unable to break above the current Resistance level at 10572.57 for some days now, but we are optimistic about the chances of an upmove in the coming trading sessions, with an immediate target of 10700 on a break above the current Resistance level.
The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (10658.16) is up 0.89% on account of speculation of recovery in the Japanese economy. The Nikkei may rise to 11000 if it continues to close above 10500-600 in the days ahead. The Shanghai (3038.689) is down 0.34% on account of concerns over inflation in the Chinese economy and has a strong Resistance near 3150-75 region. The HangSeng (21127.93) is down 0.38%. The Sensex (17098.33) closed up 0.27% yesterday and may rise to 17500 if it continues to close above 17000 in the next few days.
Crude (81.62) is continuing to trade higher. The EIA's data release which showed and unexpected drop in the Gasoline and Distillate Stocks retained the price higher. The US Crude inventories rose 1.4 million barrels against the expected 1.9 million barrel increase. The OPEC increasing the demand estimate for 2010 and report showing higher Crude imports by China also supported the prices. As mentioned earlier we might expect a test of the previous high 83.92 (11-Jan-10) in the coming days. Note that Crude has been broadly ranged between 68-84 over the last few months.
Gold (1108.90) fell sharply from the high of 1128.30 yesterday. However, it is well within the range 1100-50 which we have been mentioning for some time. A break below 1100 might see 1080 on the downside.
The Euro (1.3636) is ranged between 1.3535-1.37 this week within the broad range of 1.34-38. Strong Resistance is seen at 1.3700-35 region which has been holding all through this week. Dollar-Yen (90.26) has come off from yesterday's high of 90.82 and is retaining the overall bearish sentiment. Euro-Yen Cross (123.09) has come off from its high of 124. A break below 123 might see 122-121.50 on the downside
The Pound (1.4955) is continuing to trade below 1.50 and has a very crucial Support at 1.4870 which might be tested today. Aussie (0.9121) has come off from yesterday's high of 0.9193. Significant Support is seen at 0.9060-40 region. Swiss (1.0713) has been ranged between 1.0670-1.08 over the last few days with an overall bullish bias. The SNB is scheduled today.
The Korean-Won is trading near 1133.70. Dollar-Rupee has closed lower yesterday at 45.38/39 and has opened higher today at 45.44/45
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields have increased 2 bps to quote at 0.89% and 3.71% respectively.
The SNB meeting is scheduled for today.
Feb Australia Labour Force
...Actual - 0.4K... Previous 52.7K
JP GDP Q4'09 (Adv)
...Actual 0.9%... Previous 1.1%
08:30 GMT SNB Meeting
...Expected 0.25%... Previous 0.25%
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q3 '09 (Fnl)
...Previous EUR 1.6 bln
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Previous EUR 10.7 bln
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
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